Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Final Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 04 [FINAL] Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Wednesday 03 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) is now over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Central Palawan between 10-11pm last night, and is expected to reach the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) this afternoon.  This cyclone will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before noon today. *This is the Final Update on this year's first Tropical Cyclone. 24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to move west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr across the West Philippine and South China Seas, and shall maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours. By Thursday afternoon (Jan 04), 01W (AGATON) shall start to dissipate as it nears the east coast of Vietnam.
Where is 01W (AGATON)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 03…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 9.8N 116.3E), about 260 km east-southeast of Pagasa Island (KIG), or 273 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West @ 32 kph, towards Kalayaan Island Group-South China Sea Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected): >>None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratlys), outside of PAR as it turns west-northwestward while maintaining its strength…about 570 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.1N 113.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving closer to the east coast of Vietnam while over the South China Sea, with no change of strength and track…about 784 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 04: 11.6N 111.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed January 03, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 116.3º E Lon Distance 1: 662 km SW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro Distance 2: 679 km W of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental Distance 3: 698 km SW of Tagaytay City, Cavite Distance 4: 709 km SW of Balanga City, Bataan Distance 5: 741 km SW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (AGATON) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Tuesday 02 January 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 03 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 01W (AGATON) has maintained its intensity as it moves westward at a speed of 31 km/hr over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to make landfall over the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight (Jan 02) between 8-9PM. Residents are advised to take all precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, lightning strikes, and strong winds.  24-hr Outlook: TD 01W (AGATON) is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 34 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD 01W (AGATON) – will bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Northern-Eastern-Western Visayas…becoming more frequent along Northern and Central Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands.
Where is 01W (AGATON)?	As of 05:00 PM PhT today, January 02…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Sulu Sea (near 9.4N 119.7E), about 118 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 308 km west of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West @ 31 kph, towards Central Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Along the eastern coast of Central Palawan tonight between 8-9pm, with a High  Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Central and Northern Palawan including Calamian Group of Islands – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 208 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 03: 10.2N 116.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 596 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Jan 03: 11.3N 113.5E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 570 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Tue January 02, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.4º N Lat 119.7º E Lon Distance 1: 346 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental Distance 2: 356 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental Distance 3: 376 km W of Bais City, Negros Oriental Distance 4: 378 km WSW of Paasi  City, Iloilo Distance 5: 594 km SSW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 99W STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Sunday 31 December 2017 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 01 Jan 2018 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W, a newly-developing weather system has been organizing and moving westward across the northeastern part of the South Philippine Sea. This LPA is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Where is LPA 99W?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 31…0900 GMT. The developing center was located over the northeastern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 10.0N 132.6E), about 719 km east of Siargao Island or 777 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 15 km/hr  towards Eastern Mindanao.
Forecast Highlights	The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours as a Tropical Depression (TD) while crossing Northern Mindanao and into Sulu Sea. The forecast confidence is at MEDIUM. Forecast to make landfall as a TD over the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by late Monday afternoon (Jan 01, 2018) with medium forecast confidence. It will be known locally as either "WILMA" if it develops tonight, or as "AGATON" if tomorrow morning. This LPA is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Mindanao and some portions of the Visayas beginning tomorrow, New Year's Day (Jan 01, 2018). Meanwhile, the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas will continue to have occasional monsoon rains due to the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Shall leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday morning (Jan 03) after making its second landfall over Southern Palawan. This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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