Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W [Pre-HANNA] StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 94W [Pre-HANNA] STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 9:00 PM PhT (13:00 GMT) Saturday 03 August 2019 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Sunday 04 August 2019
Current Status and Outlook	The large Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W (Pre-HANNA) which has been lingering over the Central Philippine Sea could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. However, this system will remain at sea and will not directly affect any part of the Philippines as it is forecast to track northward throughout its presence inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). LPA 94W together with the Monsoon Trough will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring "on-&-off" rains and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon and Visayas throughout the weekend.
Where is LPA 94W?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 03…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea [near 15.6°N 132.4°E], about 897 km east-northeast of Bato, Catanduanes or 1,223 km east of Metro Manila.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center, with gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Quasi-Stationary over the Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	The 5-Day Forecast (Aug 05-08) shows LPA 94W intensifying into a Tropical Depression (TD) within a day or two, and reaching its peak as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Thursday (Aug 08), as it tracks generally northward towards the Southern Islands of Japan, with very high uncertainty. Forecast confidence at this time is LOW (<35% chance). The presence of this potential Tropical Cyclone and the Monsoon Trough will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and could bring occasional rains, some gusty winds and thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Metro Manila throughout the weekend. Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the occurrence of this monsoon system. It will be named locally by PAGASA as "HANNA" once they upgraded it into a Tropical Cyclone. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Final Update

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 10 [FINAL] Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) continues to move on a fast, northerly track as it passes over Yaeyama Island Group with no change in strength…will exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next couple of hours. *This is Final Update on this tropical cyclone.  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify and will move north-northeastward across the central part of the East China Sea at a forward speed of 30 km/hr  by tomorrow, Friday morning (Jul 19). Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W continues to organize and is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its center was located over the northwestern border of the PAR line in Western Bashi Channel,  or about 248 km west of Basco, Batanes (20.4N 119.6E). With maximum sustained winds of 35 km/hr near the center and was moving NNE slowly. The combination of TS DANAS (FALCON), LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and MiMaRoPa, becoming more frequent along Western Coast of Luzon and Mindoro today.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 18…0300 GMT. The center was located over Ishigaki-Jima, Yaeyama (near 23.9°N 124.1°E), about 286 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or 417 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North @ 32 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it maintains its fast, northward track across the southern part of the East China Sea…about 328 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 26.9°N 124.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY MORNING Maintains its strength as it turns more to the NNE while moving over the central part of the East China Sea…about 356 km ESE of Shanghai, China [8AM Jul 19: 29.5°N 124.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 805 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 18, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.9°N Lat 124.1°E Lon Distance 1: 349 km E of Taichung, Taiwan Distance 2: 541 km ESE of Fuzhou, China Distance 3: 576 km NNE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 4: 635 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 5: 1085 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.5°N 124.6°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 09

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 09 Issued at: 11:50 PM PhT (15:50 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has maintained its fast north-northeast track across the East Taiwan Sea with improving circulation…expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Jul 18).  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across Yaeyama and Miyako Island Group tomorrow morning . Meanwhile, a newly-formed Tropical Distrubance (LPA) 91W was spotted over the West Philippine Sea, about 351 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur (17.3N 117.1E). This system has the potential of becoming a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. The combination of storm's rainbands, LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight and tomorrow.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 17…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea (near 21.3°N 124.8°E), about 305 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 411 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northeast @ 28 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, passing over the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 364 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM Jul 18: 24.4°N 125.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY EVENING Still moving northward across the East China Sea, outside of PAR…maintains its strength…about 439 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 27.5°N 125.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.3°N Lat 124.8°E Lon Distance 1: 418 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 2: 465 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 487 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan Distance 4: 521 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Distance 5: 846 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.5°N 125.0°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 08

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 08 Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has rapidly accelerated towards the north-northeast, away from the Balintang Channel and is now heading in the general direction of Yaeyama-Miyako Islands.  Its rainbands continues to be displaced west and east of the center.  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across the  sea east of Taiwan and will move out of the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Thursday morning (Jul 18), after passing between Yaeyama and Miyako Islands. Meanwhile, the combination of storm's rainbands, trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 17…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 19.9°N 124.2°E), about 238 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 266 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northeast @ 26 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, approaching the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 341 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 18: 22.6°N 124.5°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it passes between the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group and exits the northern border of the PAR…about 355 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Jul 18: 26.1°N 124.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9°N Lat 124.2°E Lon Distance 1: 293 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 2: 319 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 374 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 4: 385 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 5: 680 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.1°N 124.9°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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