Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 06

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARING (KOMPASU) ADVISORY NO. 06 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) has emerged over the West Philippine Sea while maintaining its westerly track and strength during the past 6 hours…expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon. 24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 24 km/hr, and will intensify slightly. The core of STS MARING is expected to move into the South China Sea tonight and will be approaching the coastal waters of Hainan Island by tomorrow afternoon (Oct 13).  The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing "on-and-off" monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.
Where is MARING (KOMPASU)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 12…2100 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte (near 18.8°N 119.9°E) Distance 1: 100 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte Distance 2: 145 km north-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 490 km north-northwest of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 20 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs): Northern Luzon & Portions of Central Luzon – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Traversing the northern part of the South China Sea with decreasing wind intensity as it maintains its westerly movement…about 573 km W of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 115.2°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Hainan Island, China as it weakens quickly into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 615 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 14: 18.8°N 109.6°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,340 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,700 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 05

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARING (KOMPASU) ADVISORY NO. 05 Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) is now moving along the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte, after making a minor landfall over Fuga Island, Cagayan…strengthens slightly as it moves west towards the West Philippine Sea. 24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 26 km/hr, and could still intensify slightly. The core of STS MARING is expected to move out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this morning, between 9-11 AM.  The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing "on-and-off" monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.
Where is MARING (KOMPASU)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 11…1500 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern coastal waters of Ilocos Norte (near 18.9°N 120.9°E) Distance 1: 36 km north-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte Distance 2: 84 km northeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte Distance 3: 487 km north of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 26 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs): Northern Luzon – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan, Ilocos Norte – Today.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	Ilocos Norte, Northern Cagayan, & Babuyan Group of Islands. +Waves of 1 to 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EVENING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it moves westward across the northern part of the South China Sea (outside of PAR)…about 501 km W of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM Oct 12: 18.9°N 115.9°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Hainan Island, China as it weakens slightly while maintaining its westerly track…about 568 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 13: 18.9°N 110.1°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH THURSDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Vinh, Northern Vietnam…weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 280 km S of Hanoi, Vienam [8PM Oct 14: 18.5°N 105.7°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,920 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,700 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

O

Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 04

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARING (KOMPASU) ADVISORY NO. 04 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) has accelerated westward and is now traversing the Babuyan Group of Islands, and is also passing along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan. Its rainbands continue to affect Northern & Central Luzon. 24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 24 km/hr, and could intensify further. The core of STS MARING is expected to be along the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte by early tomorrow morning, and will emerge over the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea, exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon (Oct 12).  The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing "on-and-off" monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.
Where is MARING (KOMPASU)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 11…0900 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern portion of the Balintang Channel or along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan (near 18.8°N 122.1°E) Distance 1: 36 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 2: 69 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 490 km north-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 30 kph, towards the Babuyan Islands-Coastal Areas of Ilocos Norte.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11) – with a high strike probability of >90%.  However, if the forecast track will dip more to the south, a major landfall could occur along the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan & Northern Ilocos Norte.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs): Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – Today until early Tomorrow (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Nearing Typhoon classification as it exits the northwestern border of the PAR, while moving westward…about 336 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 12: 18.9°N 117.5°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it approaches Hainan Island, China…about 479 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 13: 18.8°N 111.5°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Prepares to make landfall over Northern Vietnam…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 890 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 14: 18.6°N 106.6°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,610 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,750 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 20 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

O

Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 03

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARING (KOMPASU) ADVISORY NO. 03 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook	MARING (KOMPASU) becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it slows down slightly while approaching Extreme Northern Luzon.  Its western and southern rainbands are now spreading across Northern Luzon bringing stormy weather over the area. This large storm has a wide swath of 55-kph winds with a radius extending up to 900 km from the center. Therefore, windy conditions can be felt as far as Okinawa to the north, and Bicol Region to the south. 24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to accelerate while maintaining its westerly course at a speed of 25 km/hr, and could intensify further. The core of STS MARING is expected to traverse Luzon Strait tonight, passing along the Babuyan Islands (between 6 to 11 PM), and will emerge along the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea, exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning.  The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing "on-and-off" monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.
Where is MARING (KOMPASU)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 11…0300 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the southeastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 18.6°N 123.6°E) Distance 1: 153 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 2: 208 km east of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 523 km north-northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 16 kph, towards the Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11) – with high strike probability of more than 90%.  However, if the forecast track will dip more to the south, a major landfall could occur along the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs): Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – Today until early Tomorrow (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it is about to exit the northwestern border of the PAR, while moving westward…about 207 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM Oct 12: 18.7°N 118.7°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea, as it approaches Hainan Island, China…about 426 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 112.7°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over Southern Hainan (China)…weakens into an STS…about 814 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 14: 18.8°N 107.3°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,605 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 25 km outward from the center.
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

O

Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

O

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 02

TROPICAL STORM MARING (KOMPASU) ADVISORY NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 11 October 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) remains a very large system as it moves quickly towards Extreme Northern Luzon…endangering Cagayan Valley including the Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands.  Its western and southern rainbands is expected to spread today across Northern & Central Luzon, with 55-kph wind radius extending up to 900 km from the center. 24-hr Outlook: TS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to slow down while maintaining its westerly course at a speed of 20 km/hr, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today. The core of TS MARING is expected to traverse Luzon Strait tonight, passing along the Babuyan Islands (between 6 to 11 PM), and will emerge along the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea.  The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing "on-and-off" monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.
Where is MARING (KOMPASU)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 11…2300 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.8°N 124.4°E) Distance 1: 239 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 2: 295 km east of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 589 km northeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 32 kph, towards the Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11).
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs): Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – beginning this afternoon until early tomorrow morning (Oct 12).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it quickly traverse Luzon Strait, emerging along the northern part of the West Philippine Sea…about 64 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 12: 19.0°N 120.4°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 400 km S of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 114.2°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over Southern Hainan (China)…weakens into an STS…about 772 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 14: 18.6°N 107.9°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,670 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

O

Typhoon2000 (T2K) Integrated Multi-Agency Tracks

O

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone-bulletin-iframe)

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