Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (RAI) Advisory No. 02

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ODETTE (RAI) ADVISORY NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm ODETTE (RAI) maintains its intensification trend while moving westward across the Philippine Sea…expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon today as it seriously threatens Visayas & Caraga Regions. 24-hr Outlook: STS ODETTE (RAI) is forecast to maintain its WNW track across the northernmost portion of the South Philippine Sea through early Thursday morning with a forward speed of 21 kph. Forecast wind speed is expected to increase to 150 kph.
Where is ODETTE (RAI)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 15…2100 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern portion of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.8°N 132.8°E) Distance 1: 719 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 751 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte Distance 3: 887 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 20 kph, across the Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)	Landfall 01: Over Dinagat Island, between 5 to 6 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. Landfall 02: Over Southern Leyte, between 6 to 8 PM Tomorrow – with High Strike Probability of >90%. Landfall 03: Over Metro Cebu, between 11 PM Tomorrow to 1 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%. Landfall 04: Over Central -Northern Negros, between 2 to 3 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%. Landfall 05: Over Guimaras-Southern Tip of Panay, between 4 to 8 AM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%. Landfall 06: Over Roxas-El Nido Area, Palawan, between 7 to 9 PM Fri, Dec 17 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):* Visayas, Romblon, Bicol Region, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Del Norte – beginning Thursday (Dec 16) until Friday Evening (Dec 17). Mindoro, Palawan, Sulu Archipelago – beginning Friday (Dec 17) until Saturday Evening (Dec 18). *Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):* Surigao Del Norte, Siargao, Dinagat, Southern Tip of Samar, Leyte – beginning Tomorrow Afternoon until Evening (Dec 16). Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Central & Southern Panay – beginning Tomorrow Evening until Fri Morning (Dec 17). Cuyo-Pamalican Area – beginning Friday Morning until Evening (Dec 17). Northern Palawan including Calamian Group – beginning Friday Afternoon (Dec 17) until Early Saturday Morning (Dec 18).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Eastern and Northern Mindanao, Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Southern Bicol, & MiMaRoPa. +Waves of 3-5 meters* in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon while moving WNW across the northern portion of the South Philippine Sea…about 308 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Dec 16: 9.7°N 128.9°E @ 150 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Negros Occidental as a Category 2 Typhoon while moving westward…about 13 km ENE of Canlaon City, Negros Oriental [2AM Dec 17: 10.4°N 123.3°E @ 160 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Northern Palawan, intensifies further as it heads over the West Philippine Sea…about 104 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.7°N 118.2°E @ 165 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (760 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (495 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 160 km outward from the center
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