Monday, August 22, 2022

Tropical Storm FLORITA (MA-ON) Advisory No. 03

TROPICAL STORM FLORITA (MA-ON) ADVISORY NO. 03 Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Monday, 22 August 2022 Next update: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Tuesday, 23 August 2022
Current Status & Outlook	FLORITA has rapidly strengthened into a Tropical Storm (TS) and is now known internationally as "MA-ON" (A Chinese word for Horse Saddle)…likely to make landfall somewhere along Eastern Isabela-Northern Cagayan Area early tomorrow morning. 24-hr Outlook: TS FLORITA (MA-ON) could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) before it makes landfall and will move on a northwesterly track traversing Eastern Isabela and Cagayan tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Its rainbands could bring heavy to extreme rainfall across much of Northern Luzon and some portions of Central Luzon during the next 24 to 36 hours. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are likely to occur during the storm's passage. Please take all necessary precautions. Meanwhile, its trough or extension together with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms across the Whole of Luzon including Metropolitan Manila, MiMaRoPa, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today through tomorrow (Aug 23). Risk of flooding and landslides will be Medium to High.
Where is FLORITA (MA-ON)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, August 22…0900 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.2°N 123.5°E) Distance 1: 147 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela Distance 2: 150 km east of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 3: 245 km southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 11 kph, approaching the Coastal Waters of Northern Aurora-Eastern Isabela Area.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)	Along Eastern Isabela-Northern Cagayan Area – between 2 to 8 AM early tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23) with High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):* Northern Luzon – between 8 PM today to 8 PM tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23). *Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):* None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters* in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Piat, Cagayan as it weakens slightly while traversing Cagayan. Moving on a northwesterly track towards Kalinga and Ilocos Norte…about 32 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM Aug 23: 17.8°N 121.5°E @ 85 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it exits the NW Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 335 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Aug 24: 19.8°N 117.9°E @ 100 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Guangdong Province (Southern China), weakens into a TS…about 156 km West of Hong Kong, China [2PM Aug 25: 22.5°N 112.6°E @ 95 kph]. Forecast Confidence: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (1,020 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (611 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): —
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.