Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) Update Number 012
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KOPPU (LANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Sunday 18 October 2015
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 18 October 2015
The low-level circulation center of Typhoon KOPPU (LANDO) has been almost stationary along the central part of Aurora Province during the past six hours as the cyclone continues to weaken. This cyclone will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rains across most parts of Northern Luzon today through Monday (Oct 19). WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station in Baler, Aurora Brgy. Zabali (GMA Farms Inc.) has recorded the highest Wind Gusts of 191 kph at around 2:50 AM, Oct. 18 during KOPPU's (LANDO) landfall over the area.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY KOPPU (LANDO).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
RAINFALL
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Abra, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan and Nueva Vizcaya - Today through Monday (Oct 19).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Apayao and Ilocos Norte - Today through (Oct 19).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Pampanga, Bulacan, Batangas, Bataan, Cavite, Rizal, Metro Manila, Quirino, Western Isabela and Western Cagayan - Today through Monday (Oct 19).
WINDS
- Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Northern Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Western Mt. Province and Southern Ilocos Sur - Today until Monday morning (Oct 19).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan inlc. Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, rest of Ilocos Sur, Abra, rest of Mt. Province, rest of Nueva Ecija, Northern Quezon, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Tarlac and Zambales - Today through Tuesday Morning (Oct 20).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 18...0300 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY KOPPU (LANDO)
Location: Over Southern Quirino...(near 16.1N 121.6E)
About: 64 km west-southwest of Casiguran, Aurora...or 36 km north-northwest of Baler, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (southwest and west of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 750 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 130 km from the center
Past Movement: Stationary
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 09 kph
Towards: Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-Ifugao-Mt. Province Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TY KOPPU (LANDO) is expected to turn west-northwest to northwest with slow speed for the next 24 hours...turning sharply to northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, KOPPU (LANDO) shall traverse the southern provinces of Northern Luzon today (Oct 18) through the western-central provinces by Monday morning (Oct 19)...across the Cordillera Mountain in Ifugao and Mt. Province.
TY KOPPU (LANDO) is forecast to rapidly and significantly weaken during the outlook period as it traverses the rugged mountain ranges of Northern Luzon. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 95 kph on Monday morning (Oct 19)...and decreasing further to 85 kph on Tuesday morning (Oct 20).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens further into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwestward across Ifugao...about 22 km south of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM OCT 19: 17.4N 120.4E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to lose strength as it sharply turns to the northeast across Ilocos Sur...about 34 km east-southeast of laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM OCT 20: 18.1N 120.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Maintains its strenghtas it reemerges over the Babuyan Channel...about 59 km north-northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM OCT 21: 18.9N 122.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 18, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 16.1º N Lat 121.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km SW of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 192 km SSW of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 269 km NW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 103 km ESE of Baguio City
Distance 5: 187 km NNE of Metro Manila
Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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