Weather Updates: Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 04

Monday, April 11, 2022

Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATON (MEGI) ADVISORY NO. 04 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 11 April 2022 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 11 April 2022
Current Status & Outlook	AGATON (MEGI) has weakened into a Tropical Depression (TD) after it made landfall along MacArthur-Mayorga Area in Eastern Leyte late last night, and is now in the vicinity of Ormoc City. Its core of strong rainbands will continue to dump heavy to torrential rains across Leyte and Northern Cebu today. 24-hr Outlook: TD AGATON is forecast to drift very slowly, WNW @ 3 kph and will be in the vicinity of Daanbantayan, Cebu early tomorrow morning. The depression is expected to weaken further later today. Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS has maintained its strength while moving closer to the Philippine Sea, expected to brieflyenter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning (Apr 12). However, upon its entrance, STS MALAKAS is forecast to recurve northward and exit PAR on Wednesday (Apr 13) as it pulls behind the soon-to-be remants of TD Agaton (Megi).
Where is AGATON (MEGI)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, April 11…2100 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Over Ormoc City, Leyte (near 11.0°N 124.6°E) Distance 1: 5 km south-southwest of Ormoc City, Leyte Distance 2: 49 km southwest of Tacloban City, Leyte Distance 3: 103 km northeast of Mandaue City, Cebu
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 04 kph, across Northern Leyte.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)	Over Daanbantayan, Cebu – Early Tomorrow Morning, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):* Eastern & Central Visayas, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group. *Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):* None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters* in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further while making landfall over Daanbantayan, Cebu, moving WNW slowly…about 68 km NE of Escalante City, Negros Occidental [2AM Apr 12: 11.2°N 124.0°E @ 45 kph]. Forecast Confidence: LOW WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a remnant LPA while reversing its track Eastward (due to the pull from the passing STS Malakas located to the east). Will pass over Guiuan, Eastern Samar while emerging back over the Philippine Sea…about 30 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Apr 13: 11.0°N 126.0°E @ 35 kph]. Forecast Confidence: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (685 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Midget (<125 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): —
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