Weather Updates: Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 05

Monday, April 11, 2022

Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 05

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATON (MEGI) ADVISORY NO. 05 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 11 April 2022 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 12 April 2022
Current Status & Outlook	Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) continues to decay, and is now along the coast of Daanbantayan, Cebu. Pulsating Central Dense Overcast (CDO) together with its disorganized rainbands associated with this cyclone will continue to dump heavy to torrential rains across the Visayas including Masbate through the evening. 24-hr Outlook: TD AGATON is forecast to weaken into a remnant LPA as it moves East to ESE-ward @ 6 kph and will be along the coastal waters of Tolosa, Leyte by tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS almost a Typhoon while moving closer to the Philippine Sea, expected to briefly enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow (Apr 12). However, upon its entrance, STS MALAKAS is forecast to recurve north to NE-ward and exit PAR on Wednesday (Apr 13) as it pulls behind the soon-to-be remants of TD Agaton (Megi).
Where is AGATON (MEGI)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, April 11…0900 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Along the Coastal Waters of Daanbantayan, Cebu (near 11.3°N 124.0°E) Distance 1: 74 km west-northwest of Ormoc City, Leyte Distance 2: 80 km northeast of Sagay City, Negros Occidental Distance 3: 107 km north of Mandaue City, Cebu
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 04 kph, towards Northern Leyte.
Potential Philippine Major Landfall Area(s)	Over Villaba, Leyte – Tonight, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):* Visayas, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group. *Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):* None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	None +Waves of 3 meters* in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a remnant LPA while accelerating ESE-ward, emerging along the coastal waters of Tolosa, Leyte…about 32 km SSE of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM Apr 12: 11.0°N 125.1°E @ 35 kph]. Forecast Confidence: LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a Shallow LPA as its circulation disintegrates while moving across the Philippine Sea (due to the pull from the passing STS Malakas located to the east-northeast)…about 461 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Apr 13: 10.8°N 130.0°E @ 20 kph]. Forecast Confidence: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme] Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (510 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): —
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