Weather Updates: Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) Update Number 003

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) Update Number 003

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (CARINA) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 30 July 2016
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 30 July 2016

Current Status	Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) has slightly intensified as it moves North-Northwestward during the past 6 hours. Its rainbands will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains across most parts of the Visayas and Bicol Region today.
Where is 06W (Carina)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 30...2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 13.0N 126.9E), about221 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 342 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
Where is it heading?	Northwest @ 20 kph, towards the Northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.
What areas are currently affected?	Visayas and Bicol Region - Today through Sunday (Jul 31).
Storm Surge Info	None
2-Day Forecast Outlook	TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to continue moving generally northwestward throughout the outlook period, accelerating slightly on the second day. On the forecast track, 06W (CARINA) will be crossing the northeastern tip of Cagayan by Sunday late afternoon or early evening (Jul 31). TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to intensify throughout the outlook period as it passes over warmer sea-surface temperatures.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*	SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwest towards the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea...about 305 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM JUL 31: 15.9N 124.9E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further after crossing the northeastern tip of Cagayan...about 111 km northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM AUG 01: 19.4N 120.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon over the northern part of the South China Sea…about 210 km east-southeast of Hong Kong City, China[2AM AUG 02: 21.5N 115.9E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. *Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 420 mm [Moderate to Extreme] - Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 650 km (Small) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Jul 30, 2016 Location of Center: Near 13.0º N Lat 126.9º E Lon Distance 1: 253 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 299 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes Distance 3: 380 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 407 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 660 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph