Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 007

 

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 007

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TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 007 Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Saturday 26 November 2016 Next Update: Saturday Afternoon,  26 November 2016

Current Status and Outlook Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has further intensified as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea. This cyclone is expected to slow down and change its course to the north-northwest at a speed of 15 km/hrthrough the next 24 hours. Where is Tokage(Marce)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 26...2100 GMT. The center was located over the eastern midpart of the West Philippine Sea (near 12.9N 118.9E), about 168 km northwest of Coron, Palawan or 243 km west-northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro.  How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph. Where is it heading? It was moving Northwest @ 28 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea. Potential Landfall Area(s) :: None What Philippine areas will be most affected?*   *Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected. :: None Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ :: None 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it turns north-northwest towards the northern part of the West Philippine Sea, in the vicinity of Scarborough Shoal…about 255 km west of Iba, Zambales [2AM NOV 27: 15.5N 117.6E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it further slows down and turns northward…about 319 km west of San Fernando City, La Union [2AM NOV 28: 17.0N 117.4E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken and slowly drifts southwestward…about 391 km west of San Fernando City, La Union [2AM NOV 29: 16.5N 116.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Other Storm Info - 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy] - Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 360 km (Very Small / Midget) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None. Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Nov 26, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon Distance 1: 262 km NW of Amanpulo, Pamalican Is. Distance 2: 197 km NNW of El Nido, Palawan Distance 3: 170 km SW of Lubang Island, Occ. Mindoro Distance 4: 254 km SW of Subic Bay, Zambales  Distance 5: 293 km SW of Metro Manila Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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