Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 01W [AMANG] StormWatch No. 02

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 01W [AMANG] STORMWATCH NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 20 January 2019 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Monday 21 January 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 01W [AMANG] remains disorganized while over the South Philippine Sea, with most of its rainbands displaced to the west and north of the center…expected to accelerate west-northwestward and could make landfall along Northern Caraga tonight.  The combination of the LPA's rainbands and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to heavy to at times extreme rainfall along Northern and Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas, and Bicol Region. These rains is likely to produce flooding and landslides along hazard-risk areas particularly along areas once affected by TD 35W (USMAN). Please take all necessary precautions.
Where is LPA 01W (AMANG)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, January 20…2100 GMT. The center was located along the western part of the South Philippine Sea [near 7.6°N 129.3°E], about 331 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 480 km east-southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 19 km/hr, towards the Northern Caraga.
Forecast Highlights	This LPA could still intensify within the next 12 hours, and become a Tropical Depression (TD). The WPF's 12 to 24-hr Forecast (Jan 20-21) shows it making landfall along Surigao Del Norte-Dinagat Area later tonight, and may pass over Southern Leyte-Camotes Islands Area on Monday (Jan 21).  The confidence of this forecast is at MEDIUM (35-65% chance). The Day 2 to 3 Forecast (Jan 22-23) shows LPA 01W just lingering along the Camotes Sea-Camotes Islands Area early Tuesday morning, and is expected to dissipate as it drifts SW-ward across Cebu Strait through Wednesday morning. Forecast confidence is at LOW to MEDIUM (<35-65% chance). This LPA together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will generate moderate to heavy to at times extreme rainfall from 30 to >100 mm across Northern and Eastern Mindanao today, and across Eastern & Central Visayas and Bicol Region beginning Today through Tuesday (Jan 20-22). These rains may likely cause flash floods, landslides, mudslides along the hazard-prone areas of the affected areas. Please take all necessary precautions.  The next WPF StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or earlier (if the LPA, develops into a TD).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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