Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 03W [CHEDENG] Final Update

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 03W {CHEDENG} UPDATE NO. 06 [FINAL] Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has become disorganized and weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it turns faster, west-southwestward across the South Philippine Sea.  Its remnant rainbands will bring widespread rains and thunderstorms across Mindanao through the next 24 hours.  This is the Final Update on this weather system. 24-hr Outlook: Its remnants is forecast to weaken further as it moves westward at a forward speed of 24 km/hr. It will make landfall along the southernmost part of Davao Oriental by tomorrow, Tuesday early morning (Mar 19), and traverse the mountains of Central SOCCSKSARGEN. By tomorrow afternoon, the LPA will emerge over the Moro Gulf. The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.
Where is LPA 03W (CHEDENG)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, March 18…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 6.6°N 127.9°E), about 187 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 278 km east-southeast of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Southwest @ 29 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southernmost part of Davao Oriental (Southern Mati-General Generoso Area), between 12 to 2 AM local time tomorrow, Tuesday (Mar 19) – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Mindanao, Caraga & Davao Regions – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Landfalling over the southermost part of Davao Oriental…about 56 km SSW of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Mar 19: 6.5°N 126.0°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the Moro Gulf after traversing Central SOCCSKSARGEN, weakens further into a decaying LPA…about 103 km S of Pagadian City, Zamboanga Del Sur [2PM Mar 19: 6.6°N 123.3°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 490 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon March 18, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.6°N Lat 127.9°E Lon Distance 1: 253 km SE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 306 km E of General Santos City, South Cotabato Distance 3: 332 km ESE of Valencia City, Bukidnon Distance 4: 337 km E of Koronadal City, South Cotabato Distance 5: 1159 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.6°N 123.3°E (LPA)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 05

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 05 Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has rapidly accelerated westward across the South Philippine Sea in the general direction of the southern part of Davao Region.  Its rainbands has started to spread across Eastern Mindanao.  24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to maintain its strength and movement across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. It shall make landfall along the southern part of Davao Oriental on Tuesday early morning (Mar 19), and weaken/decay into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) thereafter, as it traverses the southern part of Davao Del Sur and Central Soccsksargen by mid-day.  Its remnants will emerge over the Moro Gulf on Tuesday evening.  The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.
Where is 03W (CHEDENG)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, March 18…0300 GMT. The center was located over the mid-western part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.0°N 129.4°E), about 348 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 438 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 34 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Mati-General Generoso-San Isidro Area), between 3 to 4 AM local time tomorrow, Tuesday (Mar 19) – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Mindanao, Caraga & Davao Regions – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY MORNING: Landfalling over the southern part of Davao Del Sur, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing initially the southern part of Davao Oriental…about 8 km SE of Digos City, Davao Davao Del Sur [8AM Mar 19: 6.7°N 125.4°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the Moro Gulf after traversing Central SOCCSKSARGEN, remains an LPA…about 95 km SSE of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur [8PM Mar 19: 6.7°N 123.4°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 180 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 440 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon March 18, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.0°N Lat 129.4°E Lon Distance 1: 399 km E of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte Distance 2: 427 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 3: 476 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon Distance 4: 477 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Sur Distance 5: 1240 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.7°N 125.4°E (LPA)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 04 Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) continues to track westward across the South Philippine Sea with no change in strength.  This system is expected to begin affecting Eastern Mindanao and Davao Region today. 24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to maintain its strength and move westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. It shall make landfall along the southern part of Davao Oriental on Tuesday morning (Mar 19), and weaken/decay into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) thereafter. The combination of its rainbands, trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today through Tuesday.
Where is 03W (CHEDENG)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, March 18…2100 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.3°N 131.2°E), about 548 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 634 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 18 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Mati-San Isidro Area), between 6 to 8 AM local time on Tuesday, Mar 19 – with Low Strike Probability of <35%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Mindanao & Davao Region – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of  Davao Oriental…continues to move generally westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea…about 106 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2AM Mar 19: 6.8°N 127.2°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Landfalling over the southern part of Davao Del Sur, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing initially the southern part of Davao Oriental…about 7 km NW of Digos City, Davao Del Sur [2PM Mar 19: 6.8°N 125.3°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 520 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon March 18, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.3°N Lat 131.2°E Lon Distance 1: 590 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 608 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte Distance 3: 649 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 4: 758 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon Distance 5: 1370 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.8°N 127.2°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (CHEDENG) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 March 2019 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 18 March 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 03W (CHEDENG) has slightly accelerated as it traverses the South Philippine Sea with no change in strength.  This system is expected to begin affecting Eastern Mindanao and Davao Region later today. 24-hr Outlook: TD 03W (CHEDENG) is forecast to intensify briefly and move west-southwest to westward across the western part of the South Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 22 km/hr. This depression is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.  Its trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is likely to bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon, Eastern Bicol, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning today, Monday (Mar 18).
Where is 03W (CHEDENG)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, March 17…1200 GMT. The center was located over the central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 7.3°N 132.2°E), about 251 km west of Koror, Republic of Palau or 744 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 20 kph, towards Southern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southern part of Davao Oriental (Southern Mati-General Generoso Area), between 5 to 6 AM local time on Tuesday, Mar 19 – with Low Strike Probability of <35%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Mindanao & Davao Region – beginning today, Monday (Mar 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY EVENING: Continues to move west-southwest to westward across the southwestern part of the South Philippine Sea…about 195 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [8PM Mar 18: 6.7°N 128.0°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY EVENING: Over Western Sultan Kudarat, weakens into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) after traversing the mountainous terrains of Davao Del Sur and Central SOCCSKSARGEN…about 47 km SSW of Cotabato City, Cotabato [8PM Mar 19: 6.8°N 124.1°E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 210 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun March 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.3°N Lat 132.2°E Lon Distance 1: 658 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental Distance 2: 694 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 3: 719 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte Distance 4: 758 km E of Digos City, Davao Del Sur Distance 5: 1460 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.7°N 128.0°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 6.8°N 124.1°E (LPA)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Adonis S. Manzan and David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin)

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