Weather Updates: Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 07

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 07

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JOLINA (CONSON) ADVISORY NO. 07 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 08 September 2021 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 08 September 2021
Current Status & Outlook	Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) has emerged over Tayabas Bay after making landfall over Marinduque early this morning. The core of the storm has managed to re-intensify back to STS status while moving across the warm Sibuyan Sea. Landfall of this system over Batangas is expected in the next few hours. 24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to maintain its strength and will move northwestward at an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr…making landfall over Batangas this morning. In the afternoon, the storm will move across Cavite and passing across Corregidor Island, and will be in the vicinity of Bataan early tonight. By early morning tomorrow, JOLINA will be along the vicinity of Subic Bay, emerging over the West Philippine Sea. Meanwhile, Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) is undergoing a Rapid Intensification phase and could become a Super Typhoon today. At 5AM today, the eye was located about 1,166 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.1N 132.9E), with 1-min sustained winds of 230 kph with higher gusts. This system is not a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Batanes-Taiwan Area within the next 3-4days.
Where is JOLINA (CONSON)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 08…2100 GMT: Location of Center/Eye: Over the northwest coast of Marinduque (near 13.4°N 121.8°E) Distance 1: 8 km west of Boac, Marinduque Distance 2: 89 km east-southeast of Batangas City, Batangas Distance 3: 149 km southeast of Metro Manila
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Batangas-Cavite Area
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	Over Batangas – between 8 to 10 AM this morning, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	*Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):* Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Mindoro, Marinduque & CaLaBaRZon – Today. *Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):* Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Southern part of Metro Manila, Bataan – Today.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	Batangas +Waves of 3 meters* in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TS as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, very near Subic Bay…about 30 km WNW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Sept 09: 14.9°N 120.0°E @ 85 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies into an STS as it is about to exit PAR…heading west-northwest towards Hainan, China…about 353 km W of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 10: 16.0N 117.0°E @ 95 kph]. Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa) Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (315 km) Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km) Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km outward from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.