Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 004

 

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 004

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TROPICAL STORM SARIKA (KAREN) UPDATE NUMBER 004 Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Friday 14 October 2016 Next Update: Friday Morning, 14 October 2016

Current Status and Outlook KAREN strengthens into a Tropical Storm as it slowed down slightly during the past 6 hours…now internationally known as SARIKA – a singing bird in Cambodia. This storm is expected to threaten Northern Samar, Bicol, Quezon, and Aurora Provinces this weekend, as it is forecast to move westward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 13 km/hr. Sarika (Karen) is likely to become a Typhoon on Saturday [Oct 15]. Where is Sarika (Karen)? As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 13...1500 GMT. The center was located over the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 128.5E), about 446 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 465 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.  How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph Where is it heading? It was moving Northwest @ 13 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea. What Philippine areas will be most affected?* *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected. None for the next  36 hours.       Storm Surge Info None. 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens further into a strong Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves slowly west-northwest, closer to the East Coast of Catanduanes...about 197 km east-northeast of Virac, Caatanduanes [8PM OCT 14: 13.9N 126.0E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM. SATURDAY EVENING: Rapidly becomes a Typhoon as it passes very close to the shores of Northern Catanduanes and Northern Camarines Sur (Partido District)…about 55 km northwest of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM OCT 15: 14.4N 123.8E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM. SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a TS after traversing Central Luzon on a fast west-northwest track…about 146 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [8PM OCT 16: 15.7N 118.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Other Storm Info - 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme] - Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 435 km (Midget) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None. Additional Distances Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 13, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.8º N Lat 128.5º E Lon Distance 1: 465 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes  Distance 2: 495 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 3: 523 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 4: 573 km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 812 km ESE of Metro Manila Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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