Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Final Update

 

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Final Update

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TYPHOON SARIKA (KAREN) UPDATE NUMBER 016 **FINAL** Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 17 October 2016

Current Status and Outlook Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this morning as it slightly gained strength while turning West-Northwest across the South China Sea…threatens the Southern Chinese Island of Hainan. This typhoon is forecast to move west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr within the next 24 hours, in the general direction of Hainan Island. SARIKA will likely gain strength before making landfall. Since it is no longer a threat to the Philippines, this is now the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone. Where is Sarika (Karen)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 17...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-northern part of the South China Sea (near 17.0N 115.0E), about 566 km west-northwest of San Fernando City, La Union or 535 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island (China).  How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 170 kph Where is it heading? It was moving West-Northwest @ 30 kph, towards the South China Sea-Hainan Island Area. What Philippine areas will be most affected?*   *Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected. None. Storm Surge Info None. 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island on west-northwest track...about 161 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island [2AM OCT 18: 18.2N 111.6E @ 155kph].Confidence Level:  HIGH. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after traversing Hainan Islands, emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin…about 315 km east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM OCT 19: 20.2N 108.7E @ 105kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over the coast of Northern Vietnam, just barely a TS…about 116 km east-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM OCT 20: 21.2N 107.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. Other Storm Info - 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 280 mm [Moderate to Heavy] - Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa) - Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,010 km (Medium) - Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):160 km from  the center. Additional Distances Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Oct 17, 2016 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0º N Lat 115.0º E Lon Distance 1: 577 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur  Distance 2: 576 km WNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan Distance 3: 584 km SSE of Hong Kong, China Distance 4: 664 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is., China Distance 5: 709 km WNW of Metro Manila Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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