Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W StormWatch No. 02

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 94W STORMWATCH NO. 02 Issued at: 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Friday 21 June 2019 Next update: 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT), Saturday 22 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W has been struggling to develop during the past 24 hours, and has started moving north-northwestward across Yap State…expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late Saturday or early Sunday (June 22-23). The majority of the Global Typhoon Forecast Models are having difficulty in forecasting the strength of this LPA, therefore high uncertainty as to what strength this system will achieve in days to come. This LPA is still far to directly affect any part of the country. However, there is still a possibility that it may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country sometime next week.
Where is LPA 94W?	As of 2:00 PM PhT today, June 21…0600 GMT. The center was located approaching the island of Yap [near 9.0°N 138.8°E], about 414 km of PAR or 1,462 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…gustiness: 45 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northwest Slowly, towards East Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	This LPA is forecast to become a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 2 to 3 days, and is expected to enter the PAR by late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning (Jun 22-23). The Day 4 to 5 Forecast (Jun 25-26) shows LPA 94W over the North Philippine Sea with high uncertainty on its possible strength, and could start to recurve towards the north in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. Forecast confidence remains LOW (<35% chance). The presence of this weather system may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat)and could bring occasional rains, some gusty winds and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country particularly Western Luzon including Metro Manila sometime during the middle of next week. The Multi-Model Rain Forecast shows this possibility to occur between Wednesday through Sunday  (June 26-30). Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the approach of these weather systems. It will be named locally by PAGASA as "DODONG" if ever it becomes a Tropical Cyclone while inside the PAR. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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