Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W StormWatch No. 04

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 94W STORMWATCH NO. 04 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 23 June 2019 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 24 June 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W continues to struggle organizing as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea…could still become a Tropical Depression (TD) in the next few days. This LPA is still far to directly affect any part of the country. However, there is still a possibility that it may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country within the next 3 to 5 days.
Where is LPA 94W?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, June 23…0900 GMT. The center was located over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea [near 14.4°N 130.8°E], about 718 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 966 km east of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…gustiness: 45 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the Central & North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	This LPA is forecast to maintain its strength for the next 1 to 2 days while over the Central Philippine Sea due to unfavorable upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear). The Day 2 to 3 Forecast (Jun 25-26) shows LPA 94W recurving sharply towards the north in the general direction of the Southern Islands of Japan, with possible development into a weak Tropical Cyclone. Forecast confidence remains LOW (<35% chance). Advance forecast shows the system exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday evening (June 27). The presence of this weather system may enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat)and could bring occasional rains, some gusty winds and thunderstorms across the western sections of the country particularly Western Luzon including Metro Manila sometime during the middle of next week. The Multi-Model Rain Forecast continues to show this possibility to occur between Wednesday through Sunday  (June 26-30). Please be advised that severe thunderstorms may also occur across these areas which could cause flash floods and landslides. Precautionary measures must be implemented during the approach of these weather systems. It will be named locally by PAGASA as "DODONG" if ever it becomes a Tropical Cyclone while inside the PAR. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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