Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) Final StormWatch

TYPHOON MAN-YI (TOMAS) STORMWATCH NO. 04 [FINAL] Issued at: 5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Monday 26 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night as it starts to accelerate northwestward across the North Philippine Sea.  Expected to rapidly weaken due to cold air entrainment. This is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.
Where is MAN-YI (TOMAS)?	As of 3:00 AM PhT today, November 26…1900 GMT, the center was located over the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9°N 134.3°E), about 1,281 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,300 km east of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 160 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 13 kph, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	MAN-YI (TOMAS) is far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.  This typhoon is expected to continue losing strength beginning today through Tuesday due to the surge of cold air from the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). The WPF's 24-hour Forecast shows it weakening into a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday morning.  The presence of this Tropical Cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with some passing rain showers along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) StormWatch No. 03

TYPHOON MAN-YI (TOMAS) STORMWATCH NO. 03 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 25 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Monday 26 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) remains quasi-stationary over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea…still expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight or early Monday morning. This typhoon is not expected to affect any part of the country.
Where is MAN-YI (TOMAS)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 25…2100 GMT, the center was located near the eastern border of the PAR (near 18.4°N 136.2°E), about 1,483 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,507 km east of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 170 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Quasi-Stationary
Forecast Highlights	TY MAN-YI (TOMAS) is far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.  This typhoon is expected to continue losing strength beginning today through Monday due to the surge of cold air from the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). The WPF's 24-hour Forecast shows it entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late this afternoon or tonight and moving WNW to NW across the North Philippine Sea, weakening into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Monday morning.  The confidence of this forecast remains MEDIUM (35-65% chance). The presence of this Tropical Cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with some passing rain showers along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or by Monday morning (Nov 26).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) StormWatch No. 02

TYPHOON MAN-YI (TOMAS) STORMWATCH NO. 02 Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Saturday 24 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Sunday 25 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon MAN-YI (TOMAS) struggling over the southeasternmost part of the North Philippine Sea as it drifts slowly northward, very near the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This cyclone is forecast to turn west to west-northwestward and enter the PAR within the next 12 to 24 hours with no effects to the Philippine Islands, and will likely start losing strength due to dry-cold air intrusion within the next 2 to 3 days (Nov 26-27).
Where is MAN-YI?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 24…2100 GMT. The center was located very near the eastern border of the PAR (near 17.8°N 135.3°E), about 1,420 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 1,429 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center…Gustiness: 195 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Northward @ 16 km/hr, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	TY MAN-YI (TOMAS) is too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.  This typhoon is expected to lose strength beginning Sunday (Nov 25) due to the approaching surge of cold air from the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). The WPF's Day 2 (Nov 26) shows it drifting slowly WNW to NW, weakening into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Monday morning.  The confidence of this forecast is MEDIUM (35-65% chance). The presence of this Tropical Cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with some passing rain showers along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or by Sunday morning (Nov 25).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Typhoon MAN-YI StormWatch No. 01

TYPHOON MAN-YI STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 9:00 AM PhT (01:00 GMT) Friday 23 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Saturday 24 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Typhoon "MAN-YI", named after a strait in Hong Kong (now a reservoir) is currently approaching the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), but is not a threat to the Philippine Islands.  MAN-YI is likely to enter the PAR on Sunday morning (Nov 25) and will be named locally as "TOMAS".
Where is MAN-YI?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 23…2100 GMT. The center was located approaching the eastern border of the PAR (near 14.3°N 136.8°E), about 864 km west of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI) or 1,363 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 150 kph near the center…Gustiness: 185 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Northwest @ 23 km/hr, towards the North Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	TY MAN-YI is too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.  This typhoon is still expected to intensify within the next 12 hours, but the approaching surge of cold air from the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will start weakening the system. The WPF's Day 2 to 3 Forecast (Nov 25-26) shows it drifting slowly west to WNW, entering the eastern border of the PAR on Sunday morning, and could weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) on Monday morning due to the entrainment of cold dry air.  The confidence of this forecast is low (<30% chance). It will be named locally by PAGASA as "TOMAS" once it enters the PAR. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or by Thursday early evening (Oct 25).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Final Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 15 [FINAL] Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has slightly intensified as it crossed the West Philippine Sea. It is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight while its rainbands are affecting the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG). With this development, this is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone. 24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to move west-southwest over the South China Sea at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the Kalayaan Group of Islands and Northern Luzon today through Thursday afternoon.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 22…0900 GMT. The center was located near the western part of West Philippine Sea (near 11.4°N Lat 115.2°E Lon), about 423 km West-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 670 km Southwest of Olongapo  City, Zambales.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-northwest @ 35 kph, towards the South China Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >>  Kalayaan Island Group – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the center part of South China Sea … already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…809 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  [2PM Nov 23: 11.3°N 114.5°E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies (TS) while over the South China Sea near the Southeast shore of Vietnam…about 1138 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Nov 24: 10.4°N 108.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu November 22, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.4°N Lat 115.2°E Lon Distance 1: 684 km WSW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro Distance 2: 693 km WSW of Trece Martires City, Cavite Distance 3: 706 km WSW of Lipa City, Batangas Distance 4: 710 km WSW of Bacoor City, Cavite Distance 5: 726 km WSW of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 114.5°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.4°N 108.4°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 14

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 14 Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has maintained its intensity after it traversed over the landmass of Northern Palawan. Its rainbands are currently affecting Kalayaan Island Group (KIG).  24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) will intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it continues to move westward towards the West Philippine Sea at forward speed of 23 km/hr. It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday early morning (Nov 23). The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Eastern Luzon, National Capital Region, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, and MiMaRoPa today through Thursday afternoon.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 05:00 AM PhT today, November 22…2100 GMT. The center was located near the western coast of Northern Palawan (near 10.6°N Lat 118.9°E Lon), about 71 km north of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 395 km southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 16 kph, towards Kalayaan Island Group – West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: >> None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >>  Palawan & Kalayaan Island Group – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 2 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…491 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 23: 11.3°N 114.5°E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the West Philippine Sea, already outside the PAR…about 896 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 24: 10.2°N 110.6°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 545 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Thu November 22, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.6°N Lat 118.9°E Lon Distance 1: 405 km WNW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental Distance 2: 422 km SW of Batangas City, Batangas Distance 3: 438 km W of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental Distance 4: 445 km W of Bago City, Negros Occidental Distance 5: 500 km SSW of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 114.5°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.2°N 110.6°E (STS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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