Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 07

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 07 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) remains disorganized over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea – with most of its rainbands located northwest of its center, spreading across Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. 24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to rapidly move westward at a forward speed of 27 km/hr, and will make landfall over the eastern coast of Leyte Island later tonight, and then cross Northern Cebu, Northern Negros and Southern Panay by tomorrow, Wednesday morning (Nov 21). It will remain a TD as it crosses the area.  The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and CaLaBaRZon today through Wednesday.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 20…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.4°N 127.1°E), about 249 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte or 166 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards Dinagat-Leyte-Northern Cebu Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Leyte Island, between 7 to 9 PM local time Tonight – with High Strike Probability of 65-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Dinagat & Siargao Islands, Eastern Visayas, Southern Bicol – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength as it makes landfall along the Southeastern shoreline of Leyte…about 7 km northeast of Baybay City, Leyte [8AM Nov 20: 10.7°N 124.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Along the western shores of Panay (SW Antique), maintains its TD status after crossing the northern parts of Central and Western Visayas…about 65 km west-northwest of Iloilo City, Iloilo [8AM Nov 21: 10.9°N 122.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY EVENING: Along the western shores of Northern Palawan as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, becomes a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 48 km north of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Nov 21: 10.4°N 118.8°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY MORNING: Strengthens further while tracking westward across the West Philippine Sea, about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…some 278 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 22: 10.5°N 116.3°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the South China Sea, in the general direction of Vietnam…about 752 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 23: 11.1°N 112.0°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue November 20, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.4°N Lat 127.1°E Lon Distance 1: 226 km SE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 2: 226 km NE of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur Distance 3: 188 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 4: 352 km E of Metro Cebu, Cebu Distance 5: 803 km SE of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.9°N 122.0°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.5°N 116.3°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.1°N 112.0°E (STS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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