Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 09

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 09 Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) slightly weakens and as it approaches the eastern coast of Leyte. Most of its rainbands extend over the northwest part from its center, spreading across Visayas and Bicol Region. 24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to accelerate as it moves west-southwestward at a forward speed of 32 km/hr, and will make landfall over the eastern coast of Leyte this morning (Nov 21) at 1 AM to 3 AM , and then will cross the provinces of Cebu, Northern part of Bohol, Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental this later morning at 7 AM to 9 AM. It will remain a TD as it crosses the said areas up until it reaches the southern part of Sulu Sea. The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring cloudy and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the Visayas, Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and CaLaBaRZon today through Wednesday.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, November 20…2300 GMT. The center was located near the south of Samar Province or over the southwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 10.9°N Lat 125.7°E Lon), about 15 km south of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 90 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Leyte-Cebu Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Leyte, between 1 AM to 3 AM local time – with High Strike Probability of 65-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Dinagat & Siargao Islands, Eastern Visayas,& Southern Bicol – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY  MORNING: Slightly weaken as a TD while crossing Negros Island…32 km south of Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental  [8AM Nov 21: 9.9°N 123.2°E  @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY EVENING: Slightly Intensifies as a TD over the northernmost part of Sulu Sea ….about 123 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan[8PM Nov 21: 10.0°N 119.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the eastern part of west Philippine sea..about 142 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 22: 10.8°N 117.8°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY EVENING: Slightly intensify as a TS while over the west part of West Philippine sea and is about to exit Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 414 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Nov 22: 10.8°N 115.1°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm while over the central part of South China Sea outside the PAR…about 763 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan  [8PM Nov 23: 11.1°N 111.9°E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue November 20, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.9°N Lat 125.7°E Lon Distance 1: 119 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte Distance 2: 129 km N of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 3: 177 km SE of Calbayog City, Western Samar Distance 4: 198 km N of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 5: 648 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.0°N 119.9°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.8°N 115.1°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.1°N 111.9°E (STS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Redmund G. Nacario for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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