Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98C StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 98C STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 17 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Sunday 18 November 2018 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook	The Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98C which originated far away over the Central Pacific Ocean more than a week ago, is now approaching the Republic of Palau and could become a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 12 to 24 hours. This LPA could pose a serious threat to Eastern Mindanao and the Visayas by early next week, and is forecast to enter the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Sunday afternoon (Nov 18).
Where is LPA 98C?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 17…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of Western Micronesia (near 7.2°N 139.2°E), about 511 km east of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,421 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Westward @ 40 km/hr, towards the Republic of Palau.
Forecast Highlights	LPA 98C is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines for the next 1 to 2 days.  This LPA is expected to intensify into a Tropical Depression (TD) or Tropical Storm (TS) and forecast to enter the southeastern border of the PAR by tomorrow, Sunday afternoon (Nov 18). It will be named locally as "SAMUEL" once it enters PAR. The WPF's Day 3-5 Forecast (Nov 20-22) shows it crossing/affecting Northern Caraga Region on Tuesday afternoon/evening, Central and Western Visayas on Wednesday, and Northern Palawan on Thursday early morning. The confidence of this forecast is MEDIUM (35-65% chance). Forecast to exit the western border of PAR on Friday afternoon (Nov 23), with LOW (<35% chance) forecast confidence. The next StormWatch Update will be issued after 24 hours or by Sunday early evening (Nov 18).  However, if the LPA becomes a Tropical Cyclone, 6-hourly updates will commence.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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