Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 06

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 06 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 November 2018 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 20 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has been struggling as it moves across the Southern part of the Philippine Sea towards Northeastern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas. This system is expected to traverse Dinagat-Leyte-Cebu Area tonight through Wednesday morning (Nov 21). 24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to move west-northwestward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr, across the eastern portion of the Visayas, and will be over Northern Cebu by early tomorrow morning (Nov 21). It will remain a TD upon crossing the area.  The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Visayas, Bicol Region and Quezon today through Wednesday.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 20…2100 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.9°N 128.2°E), about 236 km east of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte or 298 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Dinagat-Southern Samar-Leyte-Cebu Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Leyte, between 8 to 10 PM local time Tonight – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Dinagat & Siargao Islands, Visayas, Southern Bicol – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Dinagat Islands as it continues to track WNW-ward with no change in strength…about 110 km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Nov 20: 10.4°N 126.5°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing over Northern Cebu as it veers more to the west, heading towards Northern Negros and Southern Panay…about 29 km north of Danao City, Cebu [2AM Nov 21: 10.8°N 124.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Cuyo Islands, as it maintains its westward movement across the Sulu Sea, becomes a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)…about 156 km southeast of Coron, Palawan [2PM Nov 21: 10.9°N 121.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Palawan, strengthens further while maintaining its westward motion…about 137 km north-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 22: 11.0°N 118.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the general direction of Vietnam…about 547 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Nov 23: 11.4°N 114.0°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 460 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue November 20, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.9°N Lat 128.2°E Lon Distance 1: 241 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 300 km ENE of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur Distance 3: 310 km ENE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 4: 475 km E of Metro Cebu, Cebu Distance 5: 934 km ESE of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.8°N 124.0°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.0°N 118.1°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 114.0°E (STS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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