Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (SAMUEL) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 19 November 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 19 November 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 33W (SAMUEL) has jogged barely northward during the past 6 hours with no change in strength.  This system remains a threat to Northeastern Mindanao-Visayas-Sulu-Palawan Area…could traverse these areas beginning Tuesday afternoon (Nov 20) through Wednesday evening (Nov 21).  24-hr Outlook: TD 33W (SAMUEL) is expected to move northwest to west-northwestward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr, in the general direction of the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea.  It is likely to slowly intensify and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by Tuesday morning (Nov 20). The depression's rainbands together with its Trough (or extension) and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is expected to bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across most parts Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Quezon Province today through Tuesday.
Where is 33W (SAMUEL)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 19…0300 GMT. The center was located over the east-central part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.3°N 132.0°E), about 652 km east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 649 km east of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards the Northwestern Part of the South Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Dinagat-Southern Leyte Area, between 4 to 6 PM local time on Tuesday, Nov 20 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Caraga Region, Northern Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, & Eastern Visayas – beginning Today. >> Central and Western Visayas, Zamboanga Del Norte, Sulu Archipelago, & Palawan – beginning Tomorrow, Tuesday (Nov 20).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns WNW-ward across the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, approaching Siargao and Dinagat Islands…about 227 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [8AM Nov 20: 9.8°N 128.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens slightly while emerging over Camotes Sea after crossing and making landfall over Dinagat and Southern Leyte, turns westward…about 37 km northwest of Maasin City, Southern Leyte [8PM Nov 20: 10.4°N 124.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Tracks WSW-ward over the Sulu Sea, passing near Cagayancillo Island…about 285 km east-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 22: 9.3°N 121.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY MORNING: Accelerating WNW-ward across the West Philippine Sea towards the Spratly Islands, and is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 363 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Nov 23: 10.9°N 115.6°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 725 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon November 19, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.3°N Lat 132.0°E Lon Distance 1: 705 km E of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte Distance 2: 732 km E of Davao City, Davao Del Sur Distance 3: 753 km ENE of Digos City, Davao Del Sur Distance 4: 731 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 5: 1385 km ESE of Metro Manila, PH 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.8°N 128.1°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.3°N 121.3°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.9°N 115.6°E (STS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

Source of TCWS Graphic: PAGASA-DOST

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