Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [Ex-TD USMAN] Final Update

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) [Ex-TD USMAN] UPDATE NO. 16 {FINAL} Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Sunday, 30 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has weakened considerably into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) and was pushed southward by the strong cold surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan), thereby relocating the center over the Southern Sulu Sea. Some relocation of its two previous position has also been made to adjuct to this new position. Due to its downgrading of this system, this is now the Final Update on this system. Meanwhile, this LPA will continue to enhance the Strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy, cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along CaLaBaRZon and MiMaRoPa.
Where is the LPA (Ex-TD USMAN)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 30…2100 GMT. The center was relocated over  the southern part of Sulu Sea (near 8.5°N 120.2°E), about 48 km southeast of Tubbataha Reefs or 262 km east of Brooke's Point, Palawan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Southwest @ 28 kph
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected): >> None.  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	:: None. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 75 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 300 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun December 30, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.5°N Lat 120.2°E Lon Distance 1: 225 km SE of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan Distance 2: 272 km NW of Zamboanga City Distance 3: 680 km S of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 15

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 15 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 30 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has slightly weakened after crossing Southern Masbate as it tracks west-northwest across the Sibuyan Sea. Its displaced, elongated rainbands has diminished considerably after dumping torrential rains across Bicol Region and the Southern Tagalog Provinces. However, isolated to scattered rain showers can still be expected along the forecast path of the depression. 24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to move west to west-southwestward across the western portion of Romblon tonight at an increased forward speed of 24 kph, and will traverse the southern part of Calamian Group of Islands by tomorrow morning (Dec 30).  It will slightly intensify upon emerging over the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow afternoon.  This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy, cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections of Bicol Region and Quezon.
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 29…0900 GMT. The center was located along the western coast of Masbate, or over the Sibuyan Sea (near 12.2°N 123.1°E), about 52 km west-southwest of Masbate City, Masbate or 100 km east-southeast of Romblon, Romblon.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 13 kph, towards Western Romblon and Calamian Group.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Over the Southern part of Calamian Island Group, between 7 to 8 AM local time on Sunday, Dec 30 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate, Heavy to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern Bicol; Portions of MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZon, & Metropolitan Manila – Tonight.  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after passing the southern part of Calamian Island Group, intensifies slightly…about 150 km N of Puerto Princesa, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 11.3°N 118.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving SW-ward across South China Sea…about 605 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 31: 8.9°N 113.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 345 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat December 29, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.2°N Lat 123.1°E Lon Distance 1: 116 km SSW of Ligao City, Albay Distance 2: 126 km SW of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 133 km SW of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 4: 156 km S of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 344 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 118.6°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.9°N 113.4°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 7.5°N 111.2°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 14

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 14 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has rapidly accelerated westward after crossing Samar Island and is now in the vicinity of Southern Masbate.  Its thick, pulsating and elongated rainbands continues to impact much of Bicol Region, Northern Panay, MiMaRoPa, and CaLaBaRZon including Metropolitan Manila. These areas will experience moderate to heavy, or at times torrential rainfall with gale-force winds (of up to 75 kph) which could trigger flash floods, mudslides, and landslides. 24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to move west to west-southwestward across the Jintotolo Channel at a decreased forward speed of 26 kph, and will traverse the northwestern part of Panay (Aklan-Antique) late this afternoon, passing over or very close to Boracay.  It will then be crossing the northern part of Sulu Sea by early tomorrow morning (Dec 30), passing over Linapacan Island (Northern Palawan) around sunrise, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.  This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and CaLaBaRZon including Mindoro Oriental.
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 29…0300 GMT. The center was located along the shores of Southern Masbate (just west of the town of Placer, Masbate) [near 11.9°N 123.8°E], about 58 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate or 203 km east of Boracay, Aklan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 33 kph, towards Northwestern Aklan & Northern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Over Northwestern Aklan, between 5 to 6 PM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 65-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate, Heavy to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Bicol Region, Northern Panay, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZon, & Metropolitan Manila – Today.  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SATURDAY EVENING: Exits the Northernmost Coastline of Aklan, or over the Northernmost part of Sulu Sea…about 30 km SW of Boracay, Aklan [8PM Dec 29: 11.8°N 121.7°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after passing Linapacan Island on a WSW direction…about 157 km WSW of Coron, Palawan [8AM Dec 30: 11.4°N 118.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY EVENING: Continues to move WSW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, and becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it approaches the Kalayaan Island Group…about 284 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 30: 10.7°N 116.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. MONDAY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving more SW-ward across the Kalayaan Island Group…about 503 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 31: 9.8°N 114.2°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 515 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat December 29, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.9°N Lat 123.8°E Lon Distance 1: 108 km WSW of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 121 km NNE of Sagay City, Negros Occidental Distance 3: 138 km S of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 4: 200 km SSE of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 420 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 118.9°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.8°N 114.2°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.1°N 111.5°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 13

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 13 Issued at: 6:50 AM PhT (22:50 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 29 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) starts to make landfall over Eastern Samar as it turns west-northwestward with increased forward speed…begins interacting with the strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).  Its thick and elongated rainbands continues to impact much of Bicol Region and Northern Visayas, and has  reached the Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metropolitan Manila. These areas will experience moderate to heavy, or at times torrential rainfall with gale-force winds (of up to 70 kph) which could trigger flash floods, mudslides, and landslide in threat zones. 24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to accelerate rapidly and turn westward at 27 kph, traversing Samar Island and the Visayan Sea this morning.  It will be cutting across Northern Panay this afternoon, and shall emerge  over the northern part of Sulu Sea, just west of Pamalican Island by early Sunday morning (Dec 30).  This depression will continue to enhance the Strong Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring cooler and windy conditions with occasional rain showers and some thunderstorms across Luzon, becoming more frequent along the northern and eastern sections particularly Bicol and CaLaBaRZon including Mindoro Oriental.
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 29…2100 GMT. The center was located just along the shores of Eastern Samar (very close to the towns of Sulat and San Julian) [near 11.8°N 125.6°E), about 28 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 78 km east of Catbalogan City, Samar.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Samar-Northern Panay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 6 to 7 AM local time today – with High Strike Probability of 85-100%. ::  Along the Northern Coast of Panay Island (Capiz-Aklan), between 3 to 5 PM local time today – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern & Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, CALABARZON & NCR  – Today.  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the Northern coastline of Panay as it accelerates Westward with no change in strength…about 63 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz [2PM Dec 29: 11.7°N 123.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Northern part of Sulu Sea, just departing Pamalican and Amanpulo Islands on a WSW direction towards Northern Palawan…about 98 km SSE of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 11.2°N 120.4°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, after crossing Northern Palawan, becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) while maintaining its WSW direction…about 138 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 10.6°N 117.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving WSW-ward towards the Kalayaan Island Group…about 404 km W of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 31: 9.8°N 115.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further while moving SW-ward across the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea…about 760 km WSW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Jan 01: 8.2°N 112.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 695 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat December 29, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.8°N Lat 125.6°E Lon Distance 1: 86 km N of Guiuan, Eastern Samar Distance 2: 114 km ESE of Calbayog City, Western Samar Distance 3: 136 km NE of Ormoc City, Leyte Distance 4: 225 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate Distance 5: 580 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.2°N 120.4°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.8°N 115.1°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 8.2°N 112.1°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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