Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 05

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 05 Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) becoming better organized as it moves slowly west-northwestward with no change in strength during the past 6 to 12 hours.  The system's western rainbands has begun to spread and affect Eastern Visayas.  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early tomorrow morning (Fri Dec 28). It is expected to start accelerating west-northwestward across the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 14 km/hr. This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces starting today.
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 27…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.4°N 129.7°E), about 443 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 526 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 08 kph, towards the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar (somewhere along the Towns of Hernani and Guiuan Area), between 9 to 11 AM local time tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28) – with High Strike Probability of 65-80%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning Today. >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it accelerates west-northwestward across the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea…approaching the SE Coast of Eastern Samar…about 151 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 28: 11.2°N 127.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Tacloban City, Leyte after making landfall over the SE part of Eastern Samar…weakens into a TD as it turns westward…about 17 km north-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM Dec 28: 11.4°N 125.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its TD status as it traverses Northern Panay on a westerly track…about 7 km southwest of Roxas City, Capiz [2AM Dec 29: 11.5°N 122.7°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it emerges along the West Philippine Sea, still moving westward across the Kalayaan Island Group…about 177 km north-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 11.3°N 117.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Reintensifies into a TS after exiting the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while turning WSW-ward across the Spratlys…about 491 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 31: 10.9°N 114.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 690 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu December 27, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.4°N Lat 129.7°E Lon Distance 1: 414 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 447 km ENE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 3: 532 km E of Maasin City, Southern Leyte Distance 4: 488 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 5: 1046 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.2°N 127.1°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.5°N 122.7°E (TD) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.3°N 117.9°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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