Tropical Depression 35W Update No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W UPDATE NO. 01 Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Tuesday, 25 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 25 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression (TD) 35W has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours as it remained almost stationary, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  This system is expected to enter PAR later today and could be named locally as "USMAN." It is likely to begin affecting Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region on Friday and Saturday.  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W is forecast to intensify slowly and move northwestward towards the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 19 km/hr. This depression is still far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 2 to 3 days.  It will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces beginning Thursday (Dec 27).
Where is 35W?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 25…2100 GMT. The center was located over the westernmost part of the Caroline Islands (near 7.5°N 135.5°E), about 112 km east of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,018 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Quasi-Stationary, along the Sea east of the Republic of Palau.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southern part of Eastern Samar, between 1 to 3 PM local time on Friday, Dec 28 – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-50%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning Thursday (Dec 27). >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves northwestward across the northeastern part of the South Philippine Sea, well inside PAR…about 709 km east of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Dec 26: 9.6°N 132.6°E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns west-northwestward slowly across the southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea,…about 401 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 27: 11.0°N 129.4°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies further as it turns westward slowly, approaching the southern coast of Eastern Samar…about 195 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 28: 11.2°N 127.5°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength and track as it traverses Northern Visayas or just along the northern coast of Capiz…about 24 km northeast of Roxas City, Capiz [2AM Dec 29: 11.7°N 122.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 810 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue December 25, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.5°N Lat 135.5°E Lon Distance 1: 1043 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 1082 km E of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur Distance 3: 1108 km E of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 4: 1126 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 5: 1760 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 9.6°N 132.6°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.0°N 129.4°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.2°N 127.5°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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