Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Wednesday, 26 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 26 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has accelerated rapidly, northwestward across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours with no change in strength.  This system is expected to affect Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region beginning late Thursday (Dec 28).  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and will move west-northwestward towards the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 23 km/hr. This depression is still far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces beginning Thursday (Dec 27).
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 26…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southeasternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.2°N 133.4°E), about 844 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 865 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Northwest @ 30 kph, towards the Southern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 6 to 8 AM local time on Friday, Dec 28 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning Thursday (Dec 27). >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerates northwest to west-northwestward across the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 368 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 27: 11.1°N 129.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it approaches the coast of Eastern Samar on a barely westerly track, slowing down…about 121 km northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 28: 11.7°N 126.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Western Romblon as it weakens slightly after crossing Samar and Masbate Islands…about 45 km west-southwest of Romblon, Romblon [2AM Dec 29: 12.4°N 121.9°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after traversing the southern tip of Mindoro and Calamian Group, re-intensfies as it tracks westward…about 183 km west of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 30: 12.2°N 118.5°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed December 26, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.2°N Lat 133.4°E Lon Distance 1: 803 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 870 km E of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 3: 884 km E of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 4: 907 km ENE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte Distance 5: 1425 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.1°N 129.1°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.7°N 126.6°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.4°N 121.9°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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