Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 06

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 06 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has maintained its strength while moving west-northwest across the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours.  The system's westernmost rainbands continues to spread across the  seaboards of  Eastern Visayas.  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and accelerate slightly west-northwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr.  It will approach the Southeastern Coast of Samar Island early tomorrow morning (Dec 28), and is expected to make landfall just north of Guiuan, Eastern Samar by late tomorrow morning. This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring windy conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces starting tonight.
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 27…0300 GMT. The center was located over the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.7°N 128.8°E), about 338 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 423 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 17 kph, towards the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 9 to 11 AM local time tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28) – with High Strike Probability of 70-85%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning  Late Today. >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Tomorrow, Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it bears down the southeast coast of Eastern Samar…starts to make landfall across Southern Samar and Biliran Island while moving WNW…about 37 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM Dec 28: 11.4°N 125.7°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY EVENING: Emerges over the Visayan Sea, near the southern coast of Masbate…becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns westward towards Northern Panay…about 73 km south of Masbate City, Masbate [8PM Dec 28: 11.7°N 123.5°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY MORNING: Emerges over the northern part of Sulu Sea, after crossing Northern Panay. Approaching the Calamian Group of Islands on a westerly track…about 88 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan [8AM Dec 29: 11.7°N 120.9°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifying and accelerating westward across the West Philippine Sea, about to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 321 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 30: 11.5°N 116.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 665 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu December 27, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7°N Lat 128.8°E Lon Distance 1: 375 km ENE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 2: 391 km NE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 3: 437 km E of Maasin City, Southern Leyte Distance 4: 382 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 5: 944 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 125.7°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.7°N 120.9°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.5°N 116.3°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


TCWS Graphics by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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