Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 02

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 25 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 26 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) has started moving northwestward during the past 6 hours and has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  This system is expected to affect Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region beginning late Thursday.  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and will move west-northwestward towards the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 22 km/hr. This depression is still far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 2 days.  It will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces beginning Thursday (Dec 27).
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 25…0900 GMT. The center was located over the easternmost part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.4°N 134.8°E), about 937 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 1,031 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	Northwest @ 17 kph, towards the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Southeastern Coast of Eastern Samar, between 7 to 9 AM local time on Friday, Dec 28 – with Medium Strike Probability of 35-55%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning Thursday (Dec 27). >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it moves west-northwestward across the southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 532 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Dec 26: 10.1°N 130.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it starts to turn westward across the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Eastern Samar…about 251 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 27: 11.4°N 128.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Northwestern Leyte as it weakens into a TD after making landfall over Eastern Samar…about 62 km northwest of Ormoc City, Leyte [2PM Dec 28: 11.5°N 124.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its TD strength as it moves across Calamian Group of Islands, turns west-northwestward…about 39 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 29: 11.9°N 120.5°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.  **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 665 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue December 25, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.4°N Lat 134.8°E Lon Distance 1: 956 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental Distance 2: 996 km E of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte Distance 3: 1020 km E of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 4: 1038 km E of Davao City, Davao Del Sur Distance 5: 1646 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 10.1°N 130.9°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.4°N 128.0°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.5°N 124.3°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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