Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) Update No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (USMAN) UPDATE NO. 04 Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday, 26 December 2018 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 27 December 2018
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression 35W (USMAN) struggling to intensify as it moved westward slowly across the unfavorable portion of the South Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours.  The system's main rainbands is expected to affect Northeastern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region beginning late tomorrow, Thursday (Dec 27).  24-hr Outlook: TD 35W (USMAN) is forecast to intensify slowly and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow afternoon. It will then start accelerating west-northwestward across the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a forward speed of 20 km/hr. This depression is still far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.  It will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and could bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Luzon incl. Bicol and Quezon Provinces beginning tomorrow, Thursday (Dec 27).
Where is 35W (USMAN)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 26…0900 GMT. The center was located over the Northernmost part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.9°N 132.0°E), about 698 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 711 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 11 kph, across the Southernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	::  Along the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar (Sulat-Borongan Area), between 6 to 8 AM local time on Friday, Dec 28 – with Medium Strike Probability of 55-65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected): >> Eastern Visayas – beginning Thursday (Dec 27). >> Rest of Visayas and Bicol Region – beginning Friday (Dec 28).  Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it accelerates west-northwestward across the southern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 320 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 27: 11.6°N 128.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the Visayan Sea, near the southeastern coast of Masbate – as it weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing Eastern Visayas, particularly Samar and Biliran Islands…about 82 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate [2PM Dec 28: 11.7°N 123.9°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges along the western coast of Busuanga Island after crossing Northern Panay and Calamian Group of Islands, maintains its TD strength…about 55 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 29: 12.2°N 119.7°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies into a TS while over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea, and is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 372 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 30: 11.9°N 116.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed December 26, 2018 Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.9°N Lat 132.0°E Lon Distance 1: 647 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 2: 714 km E of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 3: 743 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 4: 752 km ENE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte Distance 5: 1297 km ESE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.6°N 128.6°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 11.7°N 123.9°E (TD) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 12.2°N 119.7°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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