Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Final Update

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 10 [FINAL] Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) continues to move on a fast, northerly track as it passes over Yaeyama Island Group with no change in strength…will exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next couple of hours. *This is Final Update on this tropical cyclone.  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify and will move north-northeastward across the central part of the East China Sea at a forward speed of 30 km/hr  by tomorrow, Friday morning (Jul 19). Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W continues to organize and is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its center was located over the northwestern border of the PAR line in Western Bashi Channel,  or about 248 km west of Basco, Batanes (20.4N 119.6E). With maximum sustained winds of 35 km/hr near the center and was moving NNE slowly. The combination of TS DANAS (FALCON), LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and MiMaRoPa, becoming more frequent along Western Coast of Luzon and Mindoro today.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 18…0300 GMT. The center was located over Ishigaki-Jima, Yaeyama (near 23.9°N 124.1°E), about 286 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or 417 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North @ 32 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it maintains its fast, northward track across the southern part of the East China Sea…about 328 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 26.9°N 124.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY MORNING Maintains its strength as it turns more to the NNE while moving over the central part of the East China Sea…about 356 km ESE of Shanghai, China [8AM Jul 19: 29.5°N 124.6°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 805 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 18, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 23.9°N Lat 124.1°E Lon Distance 1: 349 km E of Taichung, Taiwan Distance 2: 541 km ESE of Fuzhou, China Distance 3: 576 km NNE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 4: 635 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 5: 1085 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 29.5°N 124.6°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 09

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 09 Issued at: 11:50 PM PhT (15:50 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has maintained its fast north-northeast track across the East Taiwan Sea with improving circulation…expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Jul 18).  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to slightly intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across Yaeyama and Miyako Island Group tomorrow morning . Meanwhile, a newly-formed Tropical Distrubance (LPA) 91W was spotted over the West Philippine Sea, about 351 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur (17.3N 117.1E). This system has the potential of becoming a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. The combination of storm's rainbands, LPA 91W and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight and tomorrow.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 17…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of East Taiwan Sea (near 21.3°N 124.8°E), about 305 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 411 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northeast @ 28 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, passing over the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 364 km E of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM Jul 18: 24.4°N 125.1°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. THURSDAY EVENING Still moving northward across the East China Sea, outside of PAR…maintains its strength…about 439 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 27.5°N 125.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.3°N Lat 124.8°E Lon Distance 1: 418 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan Distance 2: 465 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 487 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan Distance 4: 521 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Distance 5: 846 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.5°N 125.0°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 08

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 08 Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday, 18 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has rapidly accelerated towards the north-northeast, away from the Balintang Channel and is now heading in the general direction of Yaeyama-Miyako Islands.  Its rainbands continues to be displaced west and east of the center.  24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to intensify as it accelerates further northward at an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr across the  sea east of Taiwan and will move out of the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow, Thursday morning (Jul 18), after passing between Yaeyama and Miyako Islands. Meanwhile, the combination of storm's rainbands, trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, and portions of Bicol Region tonight.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 17…0900 GMT. The center was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel (near 19.9°N 124.2°E), about 238 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 266 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North-Northeast @ 26 kph, towards the Yaeyama-Miyako Group of Islands.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Tonight until Tomorrow (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
24-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it accelerates rapidly northward across the East Taiwan-Ryukyu Seas, approaching the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group…about 341 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM Jul 18: 22.6°N 124.5°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify as it passes between the Yaeyama-Miyako Island Group and exits the northern border of the PAR…about 355 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Jul 18: 26.1°N 124.9°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.9°N Lat 124.2°E Lon Distance 1: 293 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan Distance 2: 319 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 3: 374 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 4: 385 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 5: 680 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 26.1°N 124.9°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 07

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 07 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) has started moving northward during the past 6 hours as its rainbands remain displaced to the west of its center…likely to pass just east of the Batanes Group later tonight. 24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to gain more strength as it accelerates northward at 22km/hr across the eastern part of Bashi Channel tonight and will be passing just to the east of Taiwan by tomorrow morning (Jul 18). Meanwhile, the combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Western Panay, CaLaBaRZon, and portions of Bicol Region today through Thursday.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 17…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.7°N 123.4°E), about 133 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 245 km southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	North @ 22 kph, towards the Bashi Channel-East Taiwan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Western Coastal Areas of Northern & Central Luzon – Today until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
36-hour Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it moves northward across the Eastern part of the Bashi Channel, passing just to the east of Batanes Group of Islands…about 102 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8PM Jul 17: 20.1°N 122.9°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it accelerates Northward across the East Taiwan Sea, just to the east of Taiwan…about 163 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 18: 22.8°N 122.7°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while heading north across the East China Sea, exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 157 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 25.9°N 122.8°E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 940 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed July 17, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.7°N Lat 123.4°E Lon Distance 1: 214 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan Distance 2: 217 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 3: 189 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 4: 262 km NE of Cauayan City, Isabela Distance 5: 522 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.8°N 122.7°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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