Tropical Depression FALCON Update No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON UPDATE NO. 01 Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Monday, 15 July 2019 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	The broad Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W which was moving on a fast, westward track across the Central Philippine Sea has been upgraded into a Tropical Depression (TD) with local name "FALCON." This cyclone is currently threatening Extreme Northern Luzon with possible passage close to the area on Wednesday (Jul 17). 24-hr Outlook: TD FALCON is forecast to intensify slowly and will move westward across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 26 km/hr. The combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today and tomorrow.
Where is FALCON?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 15…0900 GMT. The center was located over the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.1°N 130.8°E), about 749 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 941 km east of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 31 kph, towards Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern and Central Luzon – beginning Tuesday evening (Jul 16) until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it moves westward across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, closer to the eastern coast of Aurora-Isabela Area…about 286 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Jul 16: 16.2°N 125.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it changes it course towards the northwest across the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel, close to the NE Coast of Cagayan…about 90 km East of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Jul 17: 18.6°N 123.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its TS strength after passing Batanes Group of Islands on a NNW to Northerly track, prepares to make landfall over Eastern Taiwan…about 63 km ESE of Taitung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 18: 22.6°N 121.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 15, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.1°N Lat 130.8°E Lon Distance 1: 765 km NE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar Distance 2: 786 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar Distance 3: 800 km NE of Catbalogan City, Western Samar Distance 4: 861 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 1058 km E of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.2°N 125.6°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.6°N 123.0°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.6°N 121.7°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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