Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 04

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 04 Issued at: 5:45 PM PhT (09:45 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	FALCON has reached Tropical Storm (TS) classification as it starts to slow down while moving on westerly track across the Philippine Sea, with increasing rainband circulation which is now spreading across the whole island of Luzon. This cyclone has already been named globally as DANAS – a Filipino word for "to experience; to feel". 24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to turn northwestward towards the Balintang and Bashi Channel at a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr, passing just to the east of Northern Cagayan by tomorrow, Wednesday afternoon (Jul 17). Meanwhile, the combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Northern Luzon, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today through Thursday.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 16…0900 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.2°N 124.7°E), about 305 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 319 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 20 kph, towards the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tonight until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it turns WNW to NW-ward across the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel, passing close to the east of Northern Cagayan…about 90 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Jul 17: 18.6°N 123.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly as it passes well to the east of Taiwan's Coastline on a northerly track…about 122 km E of Taitung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 18: 22.8°N 122.3°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of the East China Sea (outside of PAR) as it strengthens more while accelerating northward…about 255 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM Jul 19: 27.2°N 122.4°E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 815 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue July 16, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.2°N Lat 124.7°E Lon Distance 1: 245 km E of Palanan, Isabela Distance 2: 301 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 3: 347 km E of Tabuk City, Kalinga Distance 4: 348 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 5: 487 km NE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.6°N 123.0°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 22.8°N 122.3°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 27.2°N 122.4°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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