Tropical Depression FALCON Update No. 02

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON UPDATE NO. 02 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression FALCON has gained strength as it continues to move rapidly on a westerly track across the Central Philippine Sea, threatening to Extreme Northern Luzon. 24-hr Outlook: TD FALCON is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) while turning west-northwestward across the southeastern part of the Balintang Channel at a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr. The combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along the Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today.
Where is FALCON?	As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 16…2100 GMT. The center was located over the northernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.4°N 127.2°E), about 547 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 562 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 35 kph, towards Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern and Central Luzon – beginning Tuesday evening (Jul 16) until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the Southeastern part of Balintang Channel, approaching the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan…about 230 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2AM Jul 17: 18.0°N 124.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it changes it course towards the northwest to north-northwest across the Batanes Group of Islands…about 52 km South of Basco, Batanes [2AM Jul 18: 20.0°N 122.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Taiwan, weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after making landfall over Eastern Taiwan…about 27 km West of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM Jul 19: 25.0°N 121.3°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 565 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue July 16, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.4°N Lat 127.2°E Lon Distance 1: 495 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes Distance 2: 523 km NE of Bato, Catanduanes Distance 3: 552 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 4: 577 km E of Cauayan City, Isabela Distance 5: 728 km ENE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.0°N 124.3°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 20.0°N 122.1°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 25.0°N 121.3°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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