Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) Update No. 05

TROPICAL STORM DANAS (FALCON) UPDATE NO. 05 Issued at: 11:30 PM PhT (15:30 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 17 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm DANAS (FALCON) inching closer to the eastern coast of Cagayan while maintaining its strength.  Its rainbands continues to spread across Luzon. 24-hr Outlook: TS DANAS (FALCON) is expected to turn abrubtly northwest to north-northwest towards the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan and Balintang Channel at a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr, passing very close to the east of Santa Ana, Cagayan by tomorrow morning or afternoon (Jul 17), and will move across the eastern part of Balintang Channel in the evening. Meanwhile, the combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Northern Luzon, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today through Thursday.
Where is Danas (Falcon)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, July 16…1500 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.4°N 123.4°E), about 178 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 179 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 23 kph, towards the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tonight until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength as it turns abrubtly NW to NNW-ward across the Southeastern and Eastern part of the Balintang Channel, approaching Batanes Group…about 92 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM Jul 17: 19.6°N 122.3°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM. THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it about to exit the Northwestern Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while passing along Taiwan's Eastern Coastline on a northerly track…about 103 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM Jul 18: 24.2°N 122.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 997 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 660 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue July 16, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.4°N Lat 123.4°E Lon Distance 1: 115 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela Distance 2: 193 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 3: 211 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela Distance 4: 214 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan Distance 5: 402 km NE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 19.6°N 122.3°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 24.2°N 122.0°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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