Tropical Depression FALCON Update No. 03

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON UPDATE NO. 03 Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 16 July 2019
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression FALCON has moved west-southwestward across the Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength. Its threat to Extreme Northern Luzon continues to increase. 24-hr Outlook: TD FALCON is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today or Wednesday morning, and will turn back to a west-northwest track towards the Balintang Channel at a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr. The combination of its Trough and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas, becoming more frequent along Northern Luzon, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today through Thursday.
Where is FALCON?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 16…0300 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.0°N 125.8°E), about 420 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 438 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Southwest @ 26 kph, towards the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to more than 100 mm expected): >> Northern and Central Luzon – beginning tonight until Thursday (Jul 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns WNW to NW-ward across the Southeastern part of the Balintang Channel, approaching the eastern coast of Northern Cagayan and Batanes Group…about 156 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Jul 17: 18.2°N 123.6°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. THURSDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it passes very close to the Batanes Group of Islands on a NNW track…about 60 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Jul 18: 21.3°N 122.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. FRIDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Taiwan Strait (outside of PAR) as it weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)…about 139 km WSW of Taichung, Taiwan [8AM Jul 19: 23.7°N 119.4°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 815 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue July 16, 2019 Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0°N Lat 125.8°E Lon Distance 1: 361 km E of Palanan, Isabela Distance 2: 403 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 3: 409 km NNE of Bato, Catanduanes Distance 4: 426 km NE of Siruma, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 574 km ENE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.2°N 123.6°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 21.3°N 122.0°E (TS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 23.7°N 119.4°E (TD)
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

TCWS by: DOST-PAGASA (https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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