Tropical Depression 99W (Pre-ROLLY) StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99W (Pre-ROLLY) STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 11:30 PM PhT (15:30 GMT) Tuesday, 27 October 2020 Next update: 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Wednesday, 28 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	The small active low pressure (99W) over the Western Pacific Ocean, northwest of Guam has developed into a Tropical Depression (TD)…will be named soon locally as "ROLLY."  This system is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning (Oct 29) and could pose a threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend.
Where is TD 99W?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, October 27…1500 GMT: Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean (near 16.4°N 140.7°E) Distance 1: 614 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Distance 2: 540 km northwest of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI) Distance 3:  1,985 km east of Casiguran, Aurora, Philippines
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 60 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	TD 99W is expected to intensify within the next 06 to 24 hours due to conducive atmospheric environment over the area, and shall a take a deep slide towards the West-Southwest as it interacts with the approach of a strong surge of Northeasterly Winds. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by late Wednesday or early Thursday morning…then as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Friday (Oct 29)…and as a Category 1 Typhoon on Saturday (Oct 31).  Kindly refer to our attached StormWatch Track for the forecast wind speeds of this cyclone. Current Typhoon Global Models forecast it to make landfall over the Bicol Peninsula on Saturday morning (Oct 31) with Low Strike Probability (@ 30% Forecast Confidence). Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Depression (TD), it will be named by PAGASA as "ROLLY."
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for T2K

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Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 98W STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Friday, 23 October 2020 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 24 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 98W has entered the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and becomes active…currently traversing the Philippine Sea and could develop into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 06 to 24 hours. It is likely to threaten Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region this weekend.
Where is LPA 98W?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 23…0300 GMT. The developing center was located over the southeasternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.2°N 134.2°E), about 931 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 970 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 22 kph, towards Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	LPA 98W is expected to intensify within the next 06 to 24 hours due to conducive atmospheric environment. It shall reach Tropical Depression (TD) status later today, and eventually becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) by Saturday Afternoon. It could reach Severe Tropical Storm (STS) before it makes landfall over the Bicol Peninsula on Monday, Oct 26. Kindly refer to our attached StormWatch Track for the forecast wind speeds of this cyclone. Current Typhoon Global Models forecast it to make landfall over the Bicol Peninsula on Monday morning (Oct 26) with Medium Strike Probability (@ 60% Forecast Confidence). Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Depression (TD), it will be named by PAGASA as "QUINTA."
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for T2K

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Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) Advisory No. 10

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 10 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	PEPITO (SAUDEL) becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it slows down while over the West Philippine Sea…expected to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon (Oct 22). 24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) is forecast to move slowly northwestward at 08  kph for the next 24 hours and will continue to gain strength, reaching 100 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon. The combination of Pepito's Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Southwesterly Surface Windflow – will bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Western Luzon and MiMaRoPa today.
Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT Today, October 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal (near 16.3°N 117.7°E), about 245 km west of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 283 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Southwest @ 11 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it moves slowly, northwestward…already outside of PAR…about 403 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 22: 17.3°N 116.4°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify while over the South China Sea while moving west…about 522 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 23: 17.7°N 114.1°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strengthens as it accelerates westward towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 637 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 24: 18.0°N 110.2°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 790 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.
Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed October 21, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.3°N Lat 117.7°E Lon Distance 1: 309 km W of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan Distance 2: 319 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 323 km W of Tarlac City, Tarlac Distance 4: 335 km WNW of Angeles City, Pampanga Distance 5: 408 km WNW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS

:: Now Lifted ::

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) Advisory No. 09

TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 09 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) continues to move westward, away from Luzon as it re-intensifies over the West Philippine Sea…expected to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning (Oct 22). 24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) will rapidly slow down for the next 12 to 24 hours and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by later today. The combination of Pepito's Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Southwesterly Surface Windflow – will bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Western Luzon and MiMaRoPa today.
Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT Today, October 21…0300 GMT. The center was located over the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal (near 16.5°N 118.3°E), about 184 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 223 km west-northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 27 kph, towards the South China Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves slowly, WNW…exits the western border of PAR…about 352 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 22: 17.0°N 116.8°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH FRIDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify while over the South China Sea on a slow, westerly track…about 504 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 23: 17.6°N 115.5°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its strengthens as accelerates westward towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 581 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 24: 17.6°N 111.9°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm's Meteorological Information	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 220 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 735 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed October 21, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.5°N Lat 118.3°E Lon Distance 1: 245 km W of Baguio City, Benguet Distance 2: 252 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 282 km WNW of Mabalacat City, Pampanga Distance 4: 287 km WNW of Angeles City, Pampanga Distance 5: 365 km NW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS

Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) Advisory No. 08

TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 08 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) weakens slightly after crossing the southern portion of Northern Luzon during the past 8 hours…now in the vicinity of Cape Bolinao (Pangasinan) as it swiftly moves westerly towards the West Philippine Sea.  24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) will rapidly slow down for the next 12 to 24 hours as it re-organizes over the West Philippine Sea, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by early tomorrow morning (Oct 22). It shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around 8 AM tomorrow. The combination of Pepito's Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Southwesterly Surface Windflow – will bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Western Mindanao today.
Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT Today, October 21…2100 GMT. The center was located along the coastal waters of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan (near 16.5°N 119.8°E), about 44 km north-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 76 km northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 34 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves WNW…about to exit the western border of PAR…about 275 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 22: 16.8°N 117.5°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns NW-ward slowly after exiting the western border of PAR, intensifies further while over the South China Sea…about 442 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 23: 17.8°N 116.2°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strengthens as it resumes its westerly track towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 568 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 24: 17.4°N 113.0°E @ 110 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 825 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Current Summary/Additional  Reference Points	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed October 21, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.5°N Lat 119.8°E Lon Distance 1: 87 km NW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan Distance 2: 134 km SSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 150 km WNW of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija Distance 4: 169 km NW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija Distance 5: 253 km NNW of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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