Tropical Depression PEPITO Advisory No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PEPITO ADVISORY NO. 01 Issued at: 9:00 AM PhT (01:00 GMT) Monday, 19 October 2020 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday, 19 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	The broad area of Low Pressure (96W) east of Bicol Region has intensified into a Tropical Depression, with PAGASA name "PEPITO". This weak system has been moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 31 km/hr, and has a broad rainbands which could cover Visayas and Luzon in 24-36 hours. Its forecast area of landfall will be somewhere along the east coast of Aurora and Isabela by tomorrow, Tuesday evening (Oct 20). 24-hr Outlook: TD PEPITO is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) tomorrow morning and will move west-northwestward with a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr towards Central & Northern Luzon. It will be approaching the eastern coastal areas of Aurora and Isabela between 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM tomorrow, while passing about 286 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur.  The combination of the Pepito's Rainbands, Trough and the Enhanced Northeasterly Surface Windflow will bring overcast skies with scattered to widespread "on-&-off" rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including Northeastern Mindanao today and tomorrow.
Where is PEPITO?	As of 7:00 AM PhT today, October 19…2300 GMT. The center was located along the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.4°N 130.4°E), about 672 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 946 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 31 kph, towards Aurora-Isabela Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Somewhere along the East Coast of Aurora & Isabela, between 7 to 9 PM local time  tomorrow evening, Tuesday (Oct 20) – with High Strike Probability of 65%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas – Today. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a TS as it pass well to the northeast of Bicol Region…about 286 km NE of Naga City, Camarines Sur [8AM Oct 20: 15.5°N 125.0°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH  WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after traversing the Southern Part of Northern Luzon…about 85 km W of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 21: 16.4°N 119.1°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Mon October 19, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.4°N Lat 130.4°E Lon Distance 1: 639 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar Distance 2: 727 km E of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 758 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 780 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 5: 1023 km E of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.5°N 125.0°E (TS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.4°N 119.1°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

None

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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