Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) Advisory No. 07

TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 07 Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) has made landfall along the San Idelfonso Peninsula in Casiguran, Aurora around 9:00 PM last night…now traversing Quirino and Nueva Vizcaya Area. Its rainbands continues to bring occasional rains and gusty winds across Northern & Central Luzon. 24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) will slightly weaken as it continues to traverse the southern portion of the Cordillera Mountain Range early this morning – passing across the provinces of Benguet, Pangasinan, & La Union. Then later this morning, the storm will be emerging over the West Philippine Sea, tracking westward at 19 kph and intensifying into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tonight. The combination of Pepito's Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Northeasterly & Southwesterly Surface Windflows will bring overcast skies with scattered to widespread "on-&-off" rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Western Mindanao today.
Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 20…1500 GMT. The center was located in the vicinity of Nagtipunan, Quirino (near 16.2°N 121.7°E), about 39 km west of Casiguran, Aurora or 120 km east of Baguio City, Benguet.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 135 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 16 kph, across the Southern Part of Northern Luzon.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> Most Parts of Northern & Central Luzon – Today Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters* in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	WEDNESDAY EVENING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal while intensifying into an STS…about 226 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 21: 16.5°N 117.9°E @ 95 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM THURSDAY EVENING: Turns NW-ward slowly and exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), intensifies further while over the South China Sea…about 390 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8PM Oct 22: 17.7°N 116.7°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: LOW FRIDAY EVENING: Maintains its strengthens as it resumes its westerly track towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 533 km S of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 23: 17.6°N 114.2°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 810 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue October 20, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.2°N Lat 121.7°E Lon Distance 1: 59 km SSE of Santiago City, Isabela Distance 2: 87 km ENE of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija Distance 3: 108 km SSW of Ilagan City, Isabela Distance 4: 123 km ENE of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan Distance 5: 193 km NNE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.5°N 117.9°E (STS) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.7°N 116.7°E (STS) 72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.6°N 114.2°E (STS)
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