Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No. 04

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL ADVISORY NO. 04 Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 October 2020 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression OFEL currently moving towards Tablas Strait as it remains weak and disorganized…expected to make landfall over Oriental Mindoro on or after midnight tonight. Its displaced thick Rainbands still spreading across CalaBaRZon including Metro Manila and Mindoro. 24-hr Outlook: TD OFEL is forecast to maintain its strength as it moves westward @ 21 km/hr traversing  the northern parts of Oriental and Occidental Mindoro around midnight or early tomorrow (Thursday) morning. It is then expected to emerge over the northwestern coast of Occidental Mindoro tomorrow morning, and over the West Philippine Sea in the afternoon.  The Trough of this depression will continue bring overcast skies with rain showers and thunderstorms across Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao, and the Rest of Southern & Central Luzon.
Where is OFEL?	As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 14…0900 GMT. The center was located over the western part of the Sibuyan Sea (near 13.0°N 122.5°E), about 44 km south-southwest of San Andres, Quezon or 80 km east-southeast of Boac, Marinduque.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards Tablas Strait-Mindoro Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Landfall 4 – Along Pola, Oriental Mindoro, between 11 PM tonight to 1 AM tomorrow, Thursday (Oct 15) – with High Strike Probability of 70%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Metro Manila,  Southern portions of Central Luzon – Tonight through Early Tomorrow Morning. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it intensifies slightly while moving WNW…about 195 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2PM Oct 15: 14.2°N 118.6°E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the South Chin Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 789 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 16: 15.1°N 112.7°E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Information	Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed October 14, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.0°N Lat 122.5°E Lon Distance 1: 97 km SSW of Ragay, Camarines Sur Distance 2: 98 km SSW of Sipocot, Camarines Sur Distance 3: 102 km SW of Naga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 109 km W of Ligao City, Albay Distance 5: 234 km SE of Metro Manila 24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 14.2°N 118.6°E (TD) 48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 15.1°N 112.7°E (TS)
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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