Tropical Depression 99W (Pre-ROLLY) StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99W (Pre-ROLLY) STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 11:30 PM PhT (15:30 GMT) Tuesday, 27 October 2020 Next update: 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Wednesday, 28 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	The small active low pressure (99W) over the Western Pacific Ocean, northwest of Guam has developed into a Tropical Depression (TD)…will be named soon locally as "ROLLY."  This system is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning (Oct 29) and could pose a threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend.
Where is TD 99W?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, October 27…1500 GMT: Location: Over the Western Pacific Ocean (near 16.4°N 140.7°E) Distance 1: 614 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Distance 2: 540 km northwest of Hagatna, Guam (CNMI) Distance 3:  1,985 km east of Casiguran, Aurora, Philippines
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 60 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West-Northwest @ 12 kph, towards Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights	TD 99W is expected to intensify within the next 06 to 24 hours due to conducive atmospheric environment over the area, and shall a take a deep slide towards the West-Southwest as it interacts with the approach of a strong surge of Northeasterly Winds. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by late Wednesday or early Thursday morning…then as a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Friday (Oct 29)…and as a Category 1 Typhoon on Saturday (Oct 31).  Kindly refer to our attached StormWatch Track for the forecast wind speeds of this cyclone. Current Typhoon Global Models forecast it to make landfall over the Bicol Peninsula on Saturday morning (Oct 31) with Low Strike Probability (@ 30% Forecast Confidence). Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Depression (TD), it will be named by PAGASA as "ROLLY."
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for T2K

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