This weather updates section provides "easy-to-understand" tropical cyclone information over the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Basin (from Malay Peninsula - 100° E up to the International Date Line - 180°). This website is updated every 6 hours (12pm, 6pm, and 6am Philippine Time ~ GMT+8) during times of tropical cyclone activity except 12am Philippine Time (to be included if Tropical Cyclone will pass over the Philippine Islands or close to Bicol Region).

The tropical cyclone information available on this site are taken from different online meteorological agencies from around the world-wide web namely: WeatherPhilippines Foundation Inc., Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) based in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, United Nations' Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo-Typhoon Centre (Japan Meteorological Agency), & Hong Kong Observatory.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No. 02


Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No. 02


TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL ADVISORY NO. 02

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression OFEL has rapidly accelerated and made landfall over Eastern Samar early this morning…now in the vicinity of Rosario, Northern Samar…expected to traverse the Southern Tip of Sorsogon, Ticao and Burias Islands for the next 6-8 hours. Its displaced thick Rainbands are currently spreading across the whole Bicol Region.


24-hr Outlook
: TD OFEL is forecast to intensify slightly as it moves westward along the southern part of Ragay Gulf and Sibuyan Sea today, passing over the northern Romblon Islands of Bantan and Corcuera later tonight. It is then expected to make landfall over Oriental Mindoro around midnight or early Thursday morning (Oct 15)


The trough of this depression will continue bring overcast skies with rain showers and thunderstorms across Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao, and the rest of Southern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila today.

Where is OFEL?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 14…2100 GMT. The center was located over Rosario, Northern Samar (near 12.5°N 124.4°E), about 28 km west-northwest of Catarman, Northern Samar or 69 km southeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Northwest @ 37 kph, towards Southern Bicol-Romblon-Mindoro Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Landfall 2 – Along the southern tip of Sorsogon, between 6 to 7 AM Today – with High Strike Probability of 80%.


:: Landfall 3 – Somewhere along
 the towns of Pinamalayan-Gloria-Bansud, Oriental Mindoro, between 11 PM tonight to 12 AM local time tomorrow, Thursday (Oct 15) – with High Strike Probability of 65%.

What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs):
>> Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Metro Manila,  Portions of Central Luzon – Today.


Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None
.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.


+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed
Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the northern edges of Mt. Baco, Occidental Mindoro, approaching the Town of Santa Cruz…about 46 km SSW of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro [2AM Oct 15: 13.0°N 121.0°E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM


FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: 
Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the West Philippine Sea…about 376 km WSW of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Oct 16: 13.7°N 117.0°E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.


**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 470 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional InformationTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed October 14, 2020
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.5°N Lat 124.4°E Lon
Distance 1: 94 km E of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 2: 123 km SE of Ligao City, Albay
Distance 3: 123 km S of Bato, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 178 km SE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 428 km ESE of Metro Manila
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.0°N 121.0°E (TD)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 13.7°N 117.0°E (TS)

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)


PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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