Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) Advisory No. 08

TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 08 Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020 Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Storm PEPITO (SAUDEL) weakens slightly after crossing the southern portion of Northern Luzon during the past 8 hours…now in the vicinity of Cape Bolinao (Pangasinan) as it swiftly moves westerly towards the West Philippine Sea. 24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) will rapidly slow down for the next 12 to 24 hours as it re-organizes over the West Philippine Sea, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by early tomorrow morning (Oct 22). It shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around 8 AM tomorrow. The combination of Pepito's Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Southwesterly Surface Windflow – will bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Luzon and Visayas including MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, and Western Mindanao today.
Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)?	As of 5:00 AM PhT Today, October 21…2100 GMT. The center was located along the coastal waters of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan (near 16.5°N 119.8°E), about 44 km north-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 76 km northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 34 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: None.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?	Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None. +Waves of 3 meters* in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.* Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates* for more details.*
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves WNW…about to exit the western border of PAR…about 275 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 22: 16.8°N 117.5°E @ 95 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns NW-ward slowly after exiting the western border of PAR, intensifies further while over the South China Sea…about 442 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Oct 23: 17.8°N 116.2°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: LOW SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strengthens as it resumes its westerly track towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 568 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 24: 17.4°N 113.0°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 825 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Current Summary/Additional Reference Points	Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed October 21, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.5°N Lat 119.8°E Lon Distance 1: 87 km NW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan Distance 2: 134 km SSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 150 km WNW of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija Distance 4: 169 km NW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija Distance 5: 253 km NNW of Metro Manila
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